In this guide
Verdict: Polymarket dominates in terms of trading volume and breadth of available markets. Kalshi stands out as the sole federally-regulated option for US-based participants. Manifold offers a community-driven experience centred on play-money forecasting without financial risk. For those based in Europe and beyond, Polymarket accessed through PolyGram represents the optimal choice.
The prediction market sector has experienced remarkable growth throughout 2024 and into 2025. This guide examines how the leading platforms stack up against one another.
Polymarket — The Liquidity Leader
| Liquidity | Trading volume exceeds $1.5B annually. Most robust order books for political markets and cryptocurrency assets |
| Markets | Over 1,000 live markets spanning elections, digital assets, athletics, technology, entertainment |
| Fees | No house fee structure. Bid-ask spreads typically fall between 1-3 cents |
| Currency | USDC settlement via Polygon network (blockchain wallet necessary) |
| Access | Worldwide availability excluding United States. Identity verification required |
| Best for | Professional traders possessing analytical advantages |
Kalshi — US-Regulated Alternative
Kalshi holds the distinction of being America's sole CFTC-authorised prediction market operator. The platform welcomes US residents who cannot participate on Polymarket and has expanded substantially. Trade-offs include a narrower selection of available markets relative to Polymarket, with regulatory constraints limiting certain prediction categories.
Manifold Markets — Social Prediction
Manifold operates using fictional currency ("mana") instead of actual funds. This platform excels as a learning environment for developing forecasting abilities and collaborative group forecasting—unsuitable for those seeking monetary returns. The ecosystem features more than 10,000 user-generated prediction markets.
Metaculus — Forecasting Platform
Metaculus functions as an aggregator of probability estimates submitted by its specialist community. While no actual money changes hands, the system provides valuable opportunities for establishing forecast performance history and addressing international affairs questions. Academic institutions frequently reference Metaculus research on forecast calibration.
Betfair — The Legacy Exchange
Betfair pioneered the betting exchange model and continues processing billions in wagers across athletics and election forecasting annually. Strengths encompass traditional currency options, FCA oversight, substantial sports market depth. Limitations include 2-5% commissions on successful positions, absence of blockchain-based markets, and comparatively limited election market coverage versus Polymarket.
Our Recommendation for 2025
For participants outside the United States seeking maximum market depth and the broadest range of prediction categories: Polymarket accessed via PolyGram. PolyGram streamlines the technical barriers associated with cryptocurrency whilst providing complete access to Polymarket's comprehensive order books. Start trading on PolyGram →