In this guide
Key takeaway: Polymarket is a decentralised prediction market where participants trade YES/NO shares on real-world events using USDC on the Polygon blockchain. Settlement occurs automatically through smart contracts.
What is Polymarket fundamentally? Polymarket functions as a prediction marketplace: rather than wagering against a bookmaker's spread, you exchange positions with other market participants who hold differing views. Market prices continuously reflect the aggregate probability assessment of the community — shifting instantly as fresh information emerges.
The basics: prediction markets
Prediction markets enable you to acquire shares representing specific outcomes. Each share yields $1 upon YES resolution, or $0 upon NO resolution. Should you purchase a YES share for 40 cents ($0.40), you're expressing belief in a 40% likelihood of that outcome occurring. Success means your capital doubles. Failure means your investment is forfeited.
Polymarket operates differently from conventional bookmakers in that it applies no margin (the "vig"). Pricing emerges purely from the equilibrium between buyer and seller demand among market participants.
How Polymarket uses blockchain
Polymarket operates atop the Polygon blockchain (a layer-2 scaling solution built above Ethereum). This architecture delivers:
- Complete transparency and on-chain verifiability of every transaction
- Automated execution of deposits, trading activity, and fund distribution through smart contracts
- Prevention of fund freezing or outcome manipulation by Polymarket operators
- Rapid settlement completing within minutes rather than extended timeframes
USDC: the currency of Polymarket
Polymarket exclusively utilises USDC (USD Coin), a stablecoin maintaining a 1:1 correspondence with the US dollar. Your trading account remains insulated from cryptocurrency price fluctuations — 1 USDC perpetually equals $1.
How markets resolve
Upon determination of an event's outcome, Polymarket employs the UMA Oracle (Universal Market Access) for market settlement. A designated "proposer" reports the outcome; a 2-hour challenge period follows; absent objections, payouts become binding. Challenged markets proceed to decentralised arbitration via UMA token-holder consensus.
Getting started on Polymarket
- Create an account — register via email and fulfil KYC requirements
- Deposit USDC — fund your account through MoonPay, bank transfer, or existing cryptocurrency holdings
- Browse markets — explore offerings across politics, sports, digital assets, entertainment and additional categories
- Buy shares — select YES or NO and specify your investment amount
- Track and exit — liquidate your position whenever you choose prior to market conclusion
PolyGram streamlines this workflow through a mobile-optimised platform and passwordless email authentication. Start trading on PolyGram →
Why Polymarket prices are accurate
Prediction markets have repeatedly demonstrated superior forecasting performance relative to conventional surveys and specialist commentary. Throughout the 2024 US election season, Polymarket's probability assessments surpassed the accuracy of leading polling organisations. The mechanism: financial incentives compel participants toward genuine probability assessment rather than speculation.