Bitcoin price on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves on the Binance BTC/USDT closing price at noon Eastern Time on 13 June 2026, using the 1-minute candle data publicly available on the exchange. The 0% implied probability reflects the market's current assessment that Bitcoin will not trade within whatever price bracket this market has specified—though the exact bracket thresholds are not detailed in the available description. Resolution depends entirely on Binance's recorded data at that specific timestamp, with ties resolved to the higher bracket.

Bitcoin's price trajectory over comparable six-month windows has historically been shaped by macroeconomic policy signals, regulatory announcements, and institutional adoption milestones rather than discrete political events. The 2024–2025 period saw volatility driven by US Federal Reserve interest-rate expectations and spot exchange-traded fund flows, whilst earlier cycles demonstrated that geopolitical tensions and central bank communications moved markets more decisively than scheduled political events. The current 0% probability suggests traders are pricing in either an extremely wide price range or technical constraints in how the market was constructed.

Traders monitoring this resolution should track Federal Reserve communications and inflation data releases in the months preceding June 2026, as these have consistently influenced Bitcoin's quarterly performance. Any major regulatory announcements from the US Securities and Exchange Commission or international financial authorities could shift volatility expectations. Binance's operational status and any changes to its data-reporting infrastructure would also matter for clean resolution, though the exchange has maintained consistent uptime for spot trading data historically.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Bitcoin price on June 13? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.