Bitcoin above ___ on May 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market concerns Bitcoin's price at noon Eastern Time on 13 May 2026, specifically the closing price of the one-minute candle on Binance's BTC/USDT pair. The 100% implied probability reflects the market's assessment that Bitcoin will trade above the specified threshold at that precise moment, a notably confident positioning given the two-year settlement window and inherent volatility in intraday price movements.

Historical precedent suggests such extreme confidence in specific price thresholds at distant future dates typically reflects either an exceptionally high price target or a threshold set well below prevailing market expectations. Bitcoin's volatility—demonstrated through its 2024 movements between roughly $16,500 and $73,700—means even modest percentage-point thresholds can carry meaningful uncertainty over multi-year horizons. Previous markets on similar intraday price points have shown that crowd confidence often recalibrates substantially as settlement approaches, particularly when macroeconomic conditions shift or regulatory developments alter the investment landscape.

Traders monitoring this position should track Federal Reserve policy announcements, which typically influence broader risk asset sentiment and cryptocurrency valuations. Regulatory developments from the SEC, CFTC, or international bodies could materially affect Bitcoin's trajectory. Additionally, major institutional adoption announcements or significant shifts in corporate treasury allocation towards Bitcoin would serve as meaningful catalysts. The specific noon ET timestamp introduces additional granularity; intraday price action can diverge substantially from daily closes, meaning traders should also monitor trading volume patterns and any scheduled economic data releases timed around that window.

Methodology

This page tracks Bitcoin above ___ on May 13? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like PolyGram provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like PolyGram route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.