Bitcoin above ___ on May 14?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on Bitcoin's price at noon Eastern Time on 14 May 2026, as recorded on Binance's BTC/USDT pair at the one-minute candle close. The 100% implied probability reflects the market's assessment that Bitcoin will trade above the specified threshold at that precise moment, suggesting traders expect the price level in question to be well-established by that date or that the threshold itself sits substantially below anticipated price levels.

Historical Bitcoin price movements show significant volatility within single-day trading windows, with noon ET prices frequently differing from daily opens or closes by several percentage points. However, when crowd probability reaches consensus levels above 95%, the underlying threshold typically reflects either a price point already exceeded in current markets or a level so conservative relative to medium-term forecasts that intraday variation becomes immaterial. The two-year settlement window provides ample time for price discovery, reducing the relevance of short-term technical factors.

Traders monitoring this market should track macroeconomic announcements scheduled near the resolution date, particularly Federal Reserve communications and inflation data releases that historically drive Bitcoin volatility. Regulatory developments affecting cryptocurrency trading on major exchanges like Binance could theoretically impact price discovery mechanisms, though such disruptions remain relatively rare. The specific noon ET timestamp creates a dependency on US market hours activity; overnight Asian or European price movements would influence opening conditions but not the final resolution candle itself.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Bitcoin above ___ on May 14? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.