Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Clarity Act’s path in 2026 is being shaped by a familiar pattern in crypto legislation: broad House support, then a harder Senate grind. H.R.3633 passed the House and reached the Senate, where the latest official action was a cloture motion on the motion to proceed on 8 August 2026; Congress.gov still shows the bill’s status as “Passed House”.[1][3] The 19% crowd-implied chance fits that history: market-structure bills often clear one chamber with bipartisan backing yet lose momentum once floor time, amendment fights and jurisdictional disputes start to matter more than headline support.[1][12]

The main catalyst now is whether Senate leaders schedule another attempt before year-end and whether enough Democrats stay aligned with Republicans to overcome a filibuster. Reuters reported on 10 August that the Senate left for recess without taking up the bill, a setback that pushed traders towards a low-probability outcome despite the House vote and earlier committee work.[9][11] Watch for any new cloture filing, Banking Committee or leadership announcements, and fresh campaign-finance disclosures from crypto-aligned groups, which can signal whether the industry is concentrating spending on pressure points in the Senate rather than on the House, where the bill is already through.[1][11][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.