What price will Bitcoin hit on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price trajectory on 13 June 2026 remains highly uncertain, with traders currently assigning only a 2% probability to the event settling YES. The settlement window closes the following day, meaning the market is pricing an extremely narrow target band—likely a specific price point rather than a range—that Bitcoin would need to hit within a precise 24-hour window nearly 18 months from now.

Historical volatility in Bitcoin pricing suggests that pinpoint predictions over fixed dates rarely materialise. Bitcoin has experienced intraday swings exceeding 5–10% during periods of macroeconomic stress or major regulatory announcements, yet hitting a predetermined price on a specific calendar date requires convergence of multiple variables: market sentiment, institutional flows, geopolitical events, and central bank policy shifts. Comparable single-date price prediction markets on crypto assets have consistently shown that crowd-implied probabilities below 3% reflect genuine difficulty in forecasting rather than undervalued opportunities; the 2% figure here aligns with historical base rates for such narrow outcomes.

Traders monitoring this market should track Federal Reserve interest-rate decisions, which typically influence risk asset demand, alongside any major cryptocurrency regulation announcements from the SEC or international bodies. Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets has strengthened since 2020, making S&P 500 momentum and inflation expectations relevant catalysts. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows and on-chain transaction volumes reported by blockchain analytics firms offer real-time signals of institutional and retail positioning ahead of the settlement date.

Methodology

This page tracks What price will Bitcoin hit on June 13? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.