Market statistics
- Total volume
- $242K
- 24h volume
- $154K
- Liquidity
- $113K
- Open interest
- $166K
Available prediction outcomes (14)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
The S&P 500, tracked by the SPY exchange-traded fund, will trade during the week commencing 1 June 2026. The settlement window closes on 5 June at 20:00 UTC, capturing five trading days of price action. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently assign negligible likelihood to whatever threshold this market specifies—whether a particular closing level, intraday high, or volatility band. Without the explicit price target stated in the market terms, the nil probability reflects either an unrealistic strike price relative to consensus forecasts or genuine uncertainty about market conditions in early June 2026.
Historical precedent shows that equity indices rarely move in ways that defy broad consensus when settlement windows are this narrow. A five-day trading window typically captures routine volatility rather than structural breaks. The S&P 500's average daily move sits around 0.5–0.7% in normal conditions; weekly ranges of 2–3% are common but not extreme. Markets trading at 0% probability often reflect either technical impossibility (a price level far outside reasonable bounds) or a strike so far from consensus that no trader sees edge in backing it.
Traders should monitor macroeconomic releases scheduled for early June 2026—particularly employment data, inflation prints, and Federal Reserve communications. Any unexpected economic shock or policy announcement could shift equity valuations sharply. The crowd's current positioning suggests confidence in a narrow outcome band, leaving the market vulnerable to surprises that push SPY materially beyond expected ranges.
Wikipedia Context
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S&P 500S&P 500 is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 500 leading companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most commonly followed equity indices and includes approximately 80% of the total market capitalization of U.S. public companies, with an aggregate market cap of more than $61.1 trillion as of December 31, 2
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S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats
The S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats is a stock market index composed of the companies in the S&P 500 index that have increased their dividends in each of the past 25 consecutive years. It was launched in May 2005.
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S&P 500 futures
S&P 500 Futures are financial futures which allow an investor to hedge with or speculate on the future value of various components of the S&P 500 Index market index. S&P 500 futures contracts were first introduced by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in 1982. The CME added the e-mini option in 1997. The bundle of stocks in the S&P 500 is, per the name, compose
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List of S&P 500 companiesThe S&P 500 is a stock market index maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices. It comprises 503 common stocks which are issued by 500 large-cap companies traded on American stock exchanges. The index includes about 80 percent of the American market by capitalization. It is weighted by free-float market capitalization, so more valuable companies account for relativ
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for What will S&P 500 (SPY) hit Week of June 1 2026? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
FAQ
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like PolyGram route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Which political events have the biggest volume?
- US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.
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