Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?

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Market context

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly one-third of global seaborne oil trade and remains one of the world's most strategically sensitive chokepoints. This market tests whether daily vessel transits through the waterway will reach a specified threshold on any single day between now and end-May 2026, measured by IMF Portwatch arrival data covering container, tanker, bulk, and general cargo ships. The 10% implied probability reflects expectation that normal traffic patterns will persist rather than spike dramatically.

Historical transit volumes through Hormuz average 2,000–2,500 vessel passages monthly, with daily arrivals typically ranging between 40 and 80 ships depending on seasonal demand, maintenance schedules, and geopolitical friction. Previous disruptions—including the 2022 Ukraine-related energy shock and periodic Iranian tensions—have caused temporary routing changes rather than sustained blockades. The low crowd probability suggests traders expect no major supply crisis, sanctions escalation, or military incident severe enough to force a sudden surge in single-day transits or alter reporting patterns.

Catalysts to monitor include Iranian nuclear negotiations (next IAEA Board meeting scheduled for March 2026), US sanctions policy shifts under the incoming administration, and any declared military exercises in the Gulf region. Tanker rates and crude-oil futures volatility often precede changes in transit behaviour; Bloomberg and S&P Global Platts track these closely. The market's resolution hinges entirely on IMF Portwatch publication timing and methodology, making data availability and definitional consistency critical to outcome.

Methodology

This page tracks Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.