NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the Democratic primary for New York’s 12th congressional district, scheduled for 23 June 2026, to select the nominee who will contest the seat in the 2026 midterms. With the current crowd-implied probability of just 1% for any specific candidate to win, the market reflects a fragmented field where no single contender has yet secured decisive backing. This mirrors historical cases like the 2018 New York Democratic primaries, where multiple well-funded candidates split the vote until late-stage consolidation occurred; similarly, the 2020 Arizona Senate primary saw a crowded field resolve only after significant fundraising disclosures shifted momentum. In such scenarios, early polls often mislead, as undecided voters—currently 33% in NY-12—tend to coalesce around candidates who demonstrate superior financial strength or media traction later in the cycle.

Traders should monitor three key catalysts: upcoming campaign-finance disclosures, scheduled debate announcements, and formal declarations of support from party conventions. Recent filings show Alex Bores leads in fundraising with over $2.2 million by end-2025, while Micah Lasher follows with roughly $1.4 million; George Conway, though late to file, claims over $2.4 million raised since January. A super PAC funded by artificial intelligence investors has already spent hundreds of thousands targeting Bores, per City & State New York, indicating external forces may reshape the race. The market is leaning on the timing of the next FEC disclosure window, which could reveal whether Conway’s fundraising surge is sustainable or if Bores’ lead remains unassailable. Watch for any formal endorsements from the New York Democratic Party, as these often act as decisive tipping points in crowded primaries.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks NY-12 Democratic Primary Winner across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.