Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is a Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 2 match between Walczaki and Inner Circle Esports, scheduled for 11:00 AM ET on 26 June as part of the Super DraculaN Playoffs. Walczaki, a Polish roster ranked approximately world #40, enters this BO3 playoff clash after defeating EAC 2-0 in the Bucharest LAN, a $150k tournament that secured their advancement to the upper bracket [3][4]. The market currently assigns a 0% probability to Walczaki winning, suggesting the crowd views Inner Circle Esports as an overwhelming favourite despite Walczaki’s recent LAN success.

Historically, similar underdog scenarios in Counter-Strike playoffs have seen world #40 teams overcome top-tier opposition only when facing fatigue or roster instability in the opponent, as seen in past Super DraculaN Season 1 matches where lower-ranked teams advanced after top teams suffered map losses in prior rounds [1]. In those cases, the probability shifted sharply only after public announcements of roster changes or schedule delays, which rarely occurred in this tournament’s quarterfinal stage. The current 0% probability aligns with comparable cases where the underdog lacked a clear catalyst to disrupt the opponent’s dominance.

Traders should monitor for any announcements regarding Inner Circle Esports’ roster status, match schedule adjustments, or dependencies on prior tournament results that could alter their readiness. Recent news from Bo3.gg indicates no roster changes or delays for Inner Circle, reinforcing the crowd’s confidence [1]. The market leans on the absence of negative catalysts for Inner Circle, with no polling aggregator or news source suggesting a shift in their form. Without a declared roster issue or schedule disruption, the probability remains fixed at 0% for Walczaki.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page tracks Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.