How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Which political events have the biggest volume?

US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.

Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Syntax (BO…

Name: Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Syntax (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
Start: 2026-07-04T17:42:52.680Z
End: 2026-07-05T19:00:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	100%	0%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	100%	0%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Trade this market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Trade this market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
Ends in Daytime	100%
Game Handicap: STX (-1.5) vs Ilbirs eSports (+1.5)	100%
Ends in Daytime	50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan	50%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks	50%
Any Player Ultra Kill	50%
Any Player Rampage	50%
Both Teams Beat Roshan	1%
Any Player Ultra Kill	1%
Any Player Rampage	1%
Ends in Daytime	1%
Both Teams Beat Roshan	1%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks	1%
Any Player Ultra Kill	1%
Any Player Rampage	1%
Game 1 Winner	0%
Game 2 Winner	0%
Match Winner	0%
O/U 2.5 Games	0%
Game Handicap: ILL (-1.5) vs Team Syntax (+1.5)	0%
Both Teams Destroy Barracks	0%

Market context

Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Syntax (BO3) - European Pro League Group B — current market-implied probability: 100%. This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Ilbirs eSports and Team Syntax in the European Pro League Group B, initially scheduled for July 5 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Ilbirs eSpo…

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Syntax (BO3) - European Pro League Group B plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?: Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?: Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?: Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
How fast do political markets react to news?: High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
Which political events have the biggest volume?: US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.

David ParkSports Data Analystand

Oliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

Trade Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Syntax (BO3) - Europe… on Election Predictions UK

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

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Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Syntax (BO3) - European Pro League Group B

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Methodology

Resolution & payout

FAQ

Trade Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Syntax (BO3) - Europe… on Election Predictions UK

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