Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Election Predictions UK Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Election Predictions UK → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Election Predictions UK → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Election Predictions UK → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Election Predictions UK → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Election Predictions UK → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Election Predictions UK.
Active sub-markets
| Match Winner | 0% Roar Gaming | 100% Cloud Rising |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% Over | 0% Under |
| Game Handicap: Roar (-1.5) vs Cloud Rising (+1.5) | 0% Roar Gaming | 100% Cloud Rising |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% YES | 1% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs represents the final opportunity for Chinese Dota 2 teams to secure a slot at The International, the game's premier annual championship. Roar Gaming face Cloud Rising in a lower bracket round one match on 16 June, with the winner advancing and the loser eliminated from qualification contention. The best-of-three format means the first team to win two maps progresses; a single loss ends a team's qualifier run.
Chinese Dota 2 qualification has historically favoured established organisations with consistent roster stability and recent LAN results. Roar Gaming and Cloud Rising both operate within a competitive ecosystem where team composition shifts, player transfers, and recent performance against shared opponents significantly influence match outcomes. Teams that have competed in regional qualifiers or minor tournaments in the preceding weeks typically carry momentum into playoff fixtures, whilst rosters experiencing mid-season changes face integration challenges that affect coordination and map execution.
The settlement window closes on 16 June at 10:00 AM UTC, with the match scheduled for 12:00 AM ET (05:00 UTC). Traders should monitor official qualifier announcements from Valve or the event organiser for any schedule adjustments, roster confirmations, or technical issues that could delay proceedings beyond the seven-day threshold triggering a 50-50 resolution. Recent team performance data, scrim results, and player availability statements from both organisations in the days preceding the match will provide the most reliable indicators of competitive readiness.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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