Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Execration’s lower-bracket quarter-final against Mentality Monster in the Southeast Asia closed qualifier is the immediate real-world event behind this market, and the quoted 10% YES price implies the crowd sees an upset as possible but still unlikely. The match is being tracked as a best-of-three, with live listings placing it on 22 June UTC after an initial schedule of 21 June ET, so the first practical question for traders is whether the series starts and finishes within the settlement window rather than whether the bracket position changes.[1][2][3]

The best historical frame is the pre-match gap between a recognised regional side and a less established qualifier entrant: Strafe ranks Execration around #18 in its Dota 2 world standings and says users have backed Execration at 81.3%, while Scores24 notes there is no prior head-to-head history to lean on.[2][4] That combination usually leaves the market driven more by reputation and bracket context than by direct matchup evidence, which helps explain why the implied probability is far below the consensus pick but not at a pure long-shot level.[2][4]

The key catalyst is schedule and match confirmation, not campaign-style momentum: the main thing to watch is whether the series is actually staged as listed, and then whether Execration can convert their stronger baseline standing into a clean BO3 win.[1][2] Recent match listings from Hawk Live and Sofascore both show the fixture live on 22 June UTC, which suggests the market is leaning on event timing and bracket progression rather than any fresh roster or form disclosure; if the match is delayed, cancelled, or unresolved, the settlement terms point away from a standard win/loss outcome.[1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.