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LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

"LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs" — live political-market odds plus comparison across the four major prediction venues.

Both Teams Slay a Dragon 78% O/U 3.5 Games 73% Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3? 64% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 61% Volume: $302K Liquidity: $426K Closes: 4 Jul 2026
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LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 78% 22% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 78% 22% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Both Teams Slay a Dragon78%
O/U 3.5 Games73%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?64%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon61%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon61%
Odd/Even Total Kills56%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?56%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?56%
Odd/Even Total Kills52%
Odd/Even Total Kills51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Any Player Quadra Kill51%
Any Player Penta Kill51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
Any Player Quadra Kill50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor50%
First Blood in Game 3?50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
First Blood in Game 4?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?50%
Game 4 Winner49%
Odd/Even Total Kills49%
First Blood in Game 1?49%
Game 1 Winner48%
Game 2 Winner48%
Game 3 Winner48%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon47%
Match Winner46%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon45%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?40%
Any Player Quadra Kill38%
Any Player Quadra Kill38%
O/U 4.5 Games37%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+1.5)37%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor37%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor36%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors36%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors36%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?36%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?34%
Any Player Penta Kill33%
Any Player Quadra Kill21%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor20%
Any Player Penta Kill20%
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+2.5)17%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors11%
Any Player Penta Kill6%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 78% YES probability for LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs. This market refers to the LoL Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Bilibili Gaming and T1 in the Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 4 at 4:00AM ET. This market will …

Methodology

This page tracks LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?
Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
Which political events have the biggest volume?
US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.
David ParkDavid ParkSports Data AnalystandOliver HughesOliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

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