LoL: DN SOOPers vs KT Rolster (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is a completed League of Legends match between DN SOOPers and KT Rolster in the KeSPA Cup Group Stage, which took place on 20 July 2026. The game has already concluded with KT Rolster defeating DN SOOPers 1–0 in a single-game elimination, rendering the 0% YES probability for DN SOOPers a factual reflection of the settled outcome rather than a forecast of future uncertainty [2].

Historically, prediction markets on esports matches that have already finished often retain zero or near-zero probability for the losing side once results are confirmed, as the settlement mechanism locks in the actual result. Comparable cases in League of Legends tournaments show that once a match is marked “已结束” (ended) with a definitive scoreline, markets do not fluctuate based on pre-match sentiment or polling, but instead resolve strictly to the recorded winner [2].

Traders should note that no further catalysts apply, as the match is complete and the settlement window closes on 20 July 2026 at 16:35 UTC, well after the game’s conclusion. With the result already public and the volume on this market reaching $815K, the 0% probability is not leaning on any pending announcement, debate, or disclosure but simply reflects the confirmed victory of KT Rolster [1].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for LoL: DN SOOPers vs KT Rolster (BO1) - KeSPA Cup Group Stage plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.