Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Election Predictions UK Pick polygram.ink |
10% | 90% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Election Predictions UK → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
10% | 90% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Election Predictions UK → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Election Predictions UK → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Election Predictions UK → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Election Predictions UK → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Election Predictions UK.
Active sub-markets
| First Blood in Game 3? | 10% RED Canids | 90% LOS |
| First Blood in Game 4? | 50% RED Canids | 50% LOS |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% RED Canids | 100% LOS |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% RED Canids | 100% LOS |
| Game 3 Winner | 0% RED Canids | 100% LOS |
| Game 4 Winner | 51% RED Canids | 50% LOS |
Market context
RED Canids and LOS will contest the grand final of the Esports World Cup South America and LATAM Qualifier Playoffs in League of Legends, with the winner securing qualification to the international tournament. The best-of-five match is scheduled for 14 June at 12:00 PM ET, with settlement occurring at 22:00 UTC the same day. The 50-50 implied probability reflects genuine uncertainty between two competitive regional representatives, though the market's resolution hinges on match completion within the seven-day window—a standard safeguard given esports' susceptibility to technical delays and scheduling disruptions.
Historical precedent from South American League of Legends competition suggests regional grand finals typically feature teams of comparable mechanical skill but divergent macro gameplay and draft flexibility. RED Canids has established itself as a consistent playoff performer, whilst LOS represents the alternative finalist emerging from the qualifier bracket. The even split in crowd probability indicates traders perceive no clear favourite based on recent form, head-to-head records, or roster composition—a reasonable assessment given both teams' passage through identical playoff structures to reach this stage.
Traders should monitor official Riot Games announcements regarding match scheduling confirmation and any roster changes announced before 14 June. Technical infrastructure reliability for the broadcast region and weather-related disruptions affecting the venue remain secondary catalysts. The settlement window's strict seven-day boundary means any delay beyond 21 June triggers automatic 50-50 resolution, creating a hard deadline that may influence late-stage trading behaviour if postponement becomes likely.
Methodology
This page tracks LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?
- Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
Trade LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup Sou… on Election Predictions UK
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