LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In

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Active sub-markets

Market context

T1 and Team Liquid face off in the Upper bracket semifinal of the Mid-Season Invitational Play-In, a decisive League of Legends match scheduled to begin early on 28 June. With the crowd-implied probability favouring T1 at 84%, the market leans heavily on the Korean squad’s historical dominance in cross-regional tournaments, despite a recent 0-2 loss to Team Liquid in the Valorant Champions Tour.

Historically, T1’s MSI record frames this probability; after missing the event from 2018 to 2021, they reached the final in 2022 and secured third place in subsequent years, though they were defeated by Gen.G in the 2025 Grand Final[3]. Comparable cases show that even when T1 suffers a short-term setback, their long-term form in League of Legends often reasserts itself, suggesting the 84% figure reflects enduring structural strength rather than momentary momentum.

Traders should monitor the official tournament schedule for any delays or cancellations, as a match not completed within seven days would reset the market to 50-50[4]. The primary catalyst is the match’s commencement on 28 June in Daejeon; any pre-match announcements regarding roster changes or venue issues from the MSI organisers could shift sentiment, though no such disclosures have been reported by Inven Global as of now[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.