Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Election Predictions UK Pick polygram.ink |
10% | 90% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Election Predictions UK → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
10% | 90% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Election Predictions UK → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Election Predictions UK → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Election Predictions UK → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Election Predictions UK → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Election Predictions UK.
Active sub-markets
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 10% Over | 90% Under |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-3.5) vs EDward Gaming (+3.5) | 100% Paper Rex | 1% EDward Gaming |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Paper Rex (-3.5) vs EDward Gaming (+3.5) | 0% Paper Rex | 100% EDward Gaming |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% Over | 0% Under |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 100% Over | 0% Under |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 100% Over | 0% Under |
Market context
Edward Gaming and Paper Rex meet in the Upper Bracket final at VCT Masters London Playoffs, a best-of-three that will decide which side reaches the final with a second life still intact. The market’s 10% YES price leaves Paper Rex as the clear crowd favourite, but the underlying fixture is not one-sided: the teams have already played a notable recent series history, with EDward Gaming beating Paper Rex 2-1 at Champions Tour 2024 Masters Shanghai[1], which shows this pairing can swing on map vetoes and momentum rather than reputation alone.
That historical result is the main comparator for reading the current number: these teams are familiar enough that traders are not pricing a pure upset narrative, but recent head-to-head evidence does argue against treating a short price as impossible. Current match listings place the game as an Upper Bracket Final BO3 on 19 June 2026, with the series format and live scheduling central to settlement risk, because any delay, cancellation, or unfinished series could force the market towards the contingency rules instead of a straight winner resolution[2][3].
The main catalyst to watch is whether the match actually starts and finishes on schedule, since official listings show it as an upcoming/featured playoff fixture and fan-facing schedule posts frame it as the headline match for the day[2][8]. If the arena timetable holds, the market should resolve on map and draft execution rather than bracket politics; if there is a postponement, broadcasters and tournament organisers become the decisive dependency, because settlement can flip away from a normal win/loss outcome if the match is not completed within the allowed window[2][4].
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?
- Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
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