Iraq vs. Norway - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Iraq and Norway will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 16 June at 6:00 PM ET. This market resolves YES only if the final score matches one of the explicitly listed exact outcomes; any other result triggers "Any Other Score." The 4% implied probability reflects the mathematical rarity of predicting exact scorelines in international football, where outcomes cluster heavily around narrow margins rather than specific tallies.

Exact-score betting in World Cup fixtures historically carries probabilities below 5% for most individual outcomes, as the distribution of goals across 90 minutes produces dozens of plausible results. Iraq qualified for the 2026 tournament via the AFC pathway, whilst Norway failed to qualify, meaning this fixture would only occur if the tournament format changes or if one team enters a playoff structure—a material uncertainty affecting market validity. Current FIFA World Cup draw procedures and group assignments have not yet been finalised for 2026, with official confirmation expected during the draw ceremony scheduled for late 2025.

Traders should monitor FIFA's official tournament documentation and group-stage pairings announcement, expected in the latter half of 2025. Recent squad development and injury reports for both nations become relevant only after group assignments are confirmed. The settlement window closes 22:00 UTC on 16 June 2026, allowing for standard match completion and official score confirmation. Until the draw occurs, the underlying fixture itself remains contingent rather than certain.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Iraq vs. Norway - Exact Score plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.