Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the FIFA World Cup Group D match between Türkiye and the United States, scheduled for 10:00 PM ET on 25 June 2026 at Los Angeles Stadium in Inglewood, California. This market bets on the exact final score after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty shoot-outs, with a current crowd-implied probability of 5% for the listed outcome.

Historically, exact-score markets in World Cup group stages rarely exceed single-digit probabilities unless the outcome is heavily skewed by form or tactical rigidity. The United States have won both their opening matches, scoring nine goals and conceding none, while Türkiye sit at zero points with a -3 goal difference after two losses. Comparable cases from 2002 and 2010 show that when a top-ranked side like Türkiye (FIFA 22) faces a surging but lower-ranked opponent like the US (FIFA 17), draws or narrow wins dominate, making any specific exact score inherently volatile and low-probability[2][7].

Traders should monitor pre-match line-up announcements, particularly whether US coach Pochettino rotates his squad after two consecutive wins, and Türkiye’s defensive adjustments given their corner dominance in recent games. The market leans on the catalyst of tactical rotation and defensive resilience, with FOX Sports noting a combined score line set at 2.5 goals, suggesting a tight contest where a draw remains plausible[1][3]. No major campaign-finance disclosures or debate schedules affect this fixture, but live betting volumes will shift sharply once the starting rosters are confirmed on 25 June.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.