Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Felix Gill and Hugo Gaston are scheduled to compete in a tennis match at the Nottingham tournament on 15 June 2026. The market currently reflects near-certainty that the match will proceed and produce a decisive winner, with the settlement window closing on 22 June 2026. The 100% implied probability suggests traders expect the match to be completed within the standard timeframe, with no cancellation, tie result, or extended delay beyond the seven-day threshold that would trigger a 50-50 resolution.

Historical precedent from ATP Challenger events at Nottingham indicates that matches scheduled during the grass-court season typically proceed as planned, barring weather disruption or player injury. Gill, ranked outside the top 200, faces Gaston, a former top-100 player who has competed regularly on the Challenger circuit. Their head-to-head record and recent form will determine the competitive balance, though the market's current pricing suggests confidence in match completion rather than a strong directional lean toward either player's advancement.

Traders should monitor ATP injury reports and weather forecasts for the Nottingham region in mid-June, as these represent the primary catalysts for market movement. Any withdrawal announcement from either player would immediately trigger resolution conditions. Tournament scheduling updates from the ATP website should be tracked closely, particularly if rain or other disruptions necessitate rescheduling beyond the seven-day window. Recent Challenger results for both players, available through ATP Tour records, will provide form indicators should the market shift from its current consensus position.

Methodology

This page tracks Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.