Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the Dota 2 Lower bracket final in The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs, where 4 Anchors and Ilmeria faced the bug in a Best of 3 match originally scheduled for 4:00 PM ET on 26 June. The match has already concluded with the bug winning 2–0, meaning the market will resolve to "the bug" rather than the 50% crowd-implied probability suggesting a tie or cancellation[2][6].

Historically, qualifier finals in regional TI pathways often see one side dominate quickly when the lower-bracket pressure compounds, as seen in past North America qualifiers where 2–0 scores were common in lower-bracket deciders[5]. A 50% implied probability in such contexts typically signals uncertainty about match cancellation or delay, not a genuine contest, making the pre-match odds a mispricing once the result is confirmed.

Traders should monitor official tournament announcements for any post-match resolution confirmations or schedule changes, though the 2–0 scoreline is already live on major esports trackers[2]. The primary catalyst is the formal resolution of the market by the exchange, which usually occurs within an hour of the final map result being logged[3]. No further declarations or campaign-finance disclosures apply here, as this is a settled esports event with a clear winner.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.