Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the FIFA World Cup Group B match between Bosnia and Herzegovina and Qatar at Seattle Stadium on 24 June 2026, a must-win fixture for both sides as they sit level on one point at the bottom of the group. The market currently prices the exact score outcome at 5% probability, reflecting the high uncertainty typical of tightly contested games where both teams are desperate to avoid elimination.

Historically, matches between nations with similar World Cup records and low goal averages often resolve to narrow scores, as seen in Bosnia’s 2014 debut where they lost 3-1 to Argentina but drew 1-1 with Nigeria. In their last five encounters with Qatar, Bosnia won once and drew four times, averaging just 0.8 goals per match and conceding 1.4, suggesting a low-scoring affair is more likely than an open goal race[3]. This pattern frames the 5% probability as plausible for any specific exact score, given the defensive tendencies of both squads.

Traders should monitor pre-match line-up announcements and any late tactical declarations from both coaches, as these can shift scoring expectations significantly. A key catalyst is the potential for early goals, which often trigger momentum swings in must-win games; FIFA’s official match centre will provide live updates on line-ups and in-game developments[7]. Recent campaign-finance disclosures from both national associations have not revealed major squad changes, but any surprise inclusions of attacking players could alter the exact score probability. The market leans on the catalyst of early goal momentum, as both teams need a win to progress.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar - Exact Score across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.