England vs. Croatia - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

England and Croatia will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 17 June at 4:00 PM ET. This market resolves on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. The 9% probability assigned to a specific scoreline reflects the mathematical rarity of any single outcome in football matches, where dozens of plausible results exist. Historical data from major tournaments shows that exact-score markets typically price individual outcomes between 5% and 15%, depending on team strength differentials and expected goal totals.

England and Croatia last met competitively in the 2018 World Cup semi-final, which Croatia won 2–1 after extra time. Their group-stage encounter in 2026 will depend heavily on squad composition and form closer to the tournament, as both nations' rosters remain fluid. The market's current pricing suggests traders are factoring in England's historical advantage in head-to-head records and expected dominance in possession, though Croatia's defensive organisation has consistently limited England's scoring opportunities in previous meetings.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and pre-tournament friendlies from spring 2026 onwards, as injury status and tactical adjustments will influence scoring expectations. Betting markets and major sportsbooks' odds for this fixture will provide real-time calibration of goal-expectancy models. The settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC on match day, allowing only the final whistle to determine resolution.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for England vs. Croatia - Exact Score plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.