Haiti vs. Scotland

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland will face each other in a group-stage match at the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 13 June. The 62% YES probability reflects market confidence that Haiti will either win or draw against the Scottish side. This represents a significant backing of the Caribbean nation, which has never qualified for a World Cup finals tournament before their qualification for 2026—a historic achievement that has shifted expectations around their competitive standing in international football.

Historical precedent suggests caution in reading too much into Haiti's qualification alone. Inaugural World Cup participants typically struggle against established footballing nations; Haiti's squad will face a Scotland team with deeper competitive experience in qualifying campaigns and tournament play. Scotland's recent record includes regular European Championship and World Cup qualification attempts, providing players with higher-intensity match exposure. The market's 62% probability leans heavily on Haiti's underdog narrative and the volatility inherent in group-stage football rather than on comparative squad depth or recent form metrics.

Traders should monitor team news releases and squad announcements through spring 2026, particularly regarding injury status for key players on both sides. Scotland's domestic league performance through the 2025–26 season will offer real-time indicators of player fitness heading into June. Haiti's preparation schedule and any friendly matches in the months before the tournament will provide concrete data on tactical readiness. The settlement window closes immediately after full-time, making live-match developments the primary catalyst for final probability shifts.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Haiti vs. Scotland plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.