Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hamas’s public position remains the key real-world event here: whether its leadership issues an official statement accepting disarmament in Gaza, or instead keeps linking any weapons handover to Israeli withdrawal, a ceasefire framework, or statehood. Reuters reported in April that Hamas told mediators it would not even enter disarmament talks without guarantees of a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, which helps explain why the market is still pinned at 0% YES despite repeated external pressure.[1]

The current probability should be read against a long record of similar deadlocks. Reuters, the BBC and other recent reporting all point in the same direction: Hamas has rejected or heavily conditioned disarmament proposals, while insisting that any change to its arsenal must come alongside Israeli withdrawal and broader political guarantees.[1][2][4][8] That makes a clean, unilateral commitment by Hamas to disarm look atypical rather than incremental, so traders are effectively pricing the absence of an official reversal.

The main catalyst to watch is any fresh mediated text or public declaration tied to Gaza ceasefire implementation, especially if it comes after meetings involving the U.S.-backed Board of Peace, Qatar, Egypt or Turkey. AP reported in June that serious discussions were under way on a proposal for the “complete decommissioning” of Hamas weaponry, with phased steps beginning with heavier arms and tied to withdrawals and technocratic governance arrangements.[5] Any scheduled talks, ceasefire deadlines, or leadership remarks from Hamas’s acknowledged political figures are more likely to move this market than battlefield developments alone, because the settlement hinges on a formal announcement rather than de facto military losses.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.