Highest temperature in NYC on June 9?

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Market context

This market resolves based on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 9 June 2026, with settlement occurring at midday on that date. The resolution uses historical weather data from Weather Underground, which maintains detailed temperature records for the airport station across all hours of the day.

New York City's June temperatures typically range between 70°F and 85°F, though extremes are possible. Historical data from LaGuardia shows that temperatures exceeding 90°F occur in roughly 5–10% of June days, whilst readings above 95°F are considerably rarer. The 30-year average high for early June sits around 78°F. Traders should reference the National Weather Service's historical records for LaGuardia to calibrate expectations around frequency of heat events during this period, as seasonal patterns and climate variability significantly influence outcome distribution.

The primary catalyst affecting this market's resolution is the actual weather pattern that develops across the northeastern United States in early June 2026. High-pressure systems moving from the south or west typically drive temperature increases, whilst Atlantic moisture and cloud cover suppress them. Traders monitoring long-range forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in late May and early June will gain clearer visibility on whether conditions favour above-average or below-average temperatures. Real-time forecast updates become increasingly reliable within 7–10 days of the settlement date, making late May and early June the critical observation windows for refining probability assessments.

Methodology

This page tracks Highest temperature in NYC on June 9? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.