US and Iran sign an agreement by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The question centres on whether the United States and Iran will execute any formal written agreement before the end of July 2026. The 85% crowd probability reflects expectations that diplomatic engagement—whether narrowly focused or broader in scope—will produce at least one signed document within the settlement window, though the nature, significance, and durability of such an agreement remain undefined by the market's terms.

Historical precedent suggests the bar for a signed agreement is lower than many traders assume. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015 took roughly two years of intensive negotiation, whilst the 1981 Algiers Accords resolving the hostage crisis were concluded within months under acute pressure. More recently, the Trump administration's withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 and subsequent "maximum pressure" campaign created a five-year gap in formal bilateral agreements. However, even during periods of acute tension, both governments have occasionally signed limited accords on prisoner exchanges, maritime incidents, or technical matters. The current probability may be anchored to assumptions that any agreement—whether a revived nuclear deal, sanctions relief arrangement, or narrower technical accord—counts as resolution to "Yes".

Traders should monitor statements from the incoming US administration regarding Iran policy, scheduled UN General Assembly sessions where both nations typically make declarations, and any signals from intermediaries including Oman or Iraq. Reuters and Associated Press coverage of State Department briefings will signal shifts in negotiating posture. The settlement window extends eighteen months from now, providing ample time for diplomatic initiatives to mature, though geopolitical escalation in the Middle East remains a significant variable affecting both sides' willingness to formalise agreements.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for US and Iran sign an agreement by 2026? plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Election Predictions UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.