Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Reserve will hold three monetary policy meetings between March and June 2026, with the FOMC setting the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at each session. The market currently implies zero probability of any rate movement—either a cut or a hike—across all three meetings, suggesting traders expect the Fed to maintain its current policy stance throughout this window. This reflects confidence in rate stability rather than a forecast of inaction; the Fed could theoretically hold rates steady at all three meetings, or move in one direction and reverse course, yet the market treats any net change as unlikely.

Historical precedent suggests such stability is plausible but not assured. Between 2018 and 2019, the Fed held rates constant for an extended period after a hiking cycle, though external shocks—trade tensions, yield curve inversions—prompted reversals. The current 0% probability reflects either exceptional confidence in economic conditions remaining stable or a market structure where traders have not yet priced in emerging risks. Recent inflation data, labour market reports, and Fed communications through early 2026 will shape expectations materially.

Traders should monitor inflation prints and employment figures released before each meeting, as these anchor FOMC deliberations. The Fed's own forward guidance and any signals from Chair Powell regarding economic trajectory will be critical catalysts. Geopolitical developments or financial stability concerns could shift the calculus rapidly. The March meeting arrives first, offering an early test of whether economic conditions warrant any policy adjustment.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Fed decisions (Mar-Jun) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.