Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly one-fifth of global oil transits daily, has experienced significant disruption since late 2023 owing to Houthi attacks on shipping and subsequent military responses. The resolution criterion hinges on whether transit traffic—measured by a 7-day moving average of arriving ships across container, tanker, bulk, and general cargo categories—recovers to 60 daily calls or above by the end of June 2026. Pre-disruption baseline traffic typically ranged between 70 and 90 daily transits, meaning the threshold represents a partial rather than complete normalisation.

Historical precedent suggests protracted recovery timelines for major shipping corridors following sustained geopolitical friction. The blockade of the Suez Canal in 2021, though resolved within weeks, took months for traffic patterns to stabilise fully as shipping companies reassessed routing and insurance costs. The current Hormuz situation differs in that no formal blockade exists; rather, persistent low-level attacks and heightened insurance premiums have created a structural disincentive to transit. The 18% probability reflects scepticism that conditions will improve sufficiently within eighteen months.

Traders should monitor announcements from the International Maritime Organization regarding revised security assessments, any ceasefire agreements involving Houthi actors, and quarterly shipping data releases from the IMF's Portwatch system itself. The market's resolution depends entirely on published IMF data rather than geopolitical declarations, meaning even a genuine reduction in attacks may fail to trigger resolution if shipping companies maintain alternative routes. Recent reports from maritime insurers and the US Central Command's assessment of regional stability will provide early signals of whether the underlying risk environment is shifting.

Methodology

This page tracks Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.