MLB: Stolen Bases Leader

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season, where the market bets on which player will accumulate the highest number of stolen bases by the end of September. Nasim Nuñez currently leads the standings with 31 steals, closely followed by Bobby Witt Jr. with 28, creating a tight race that has pushed the crowd-implied probability for any single contender to just 8% YES[1][6].

Historically, stolen base leaders often emerge from mid-season surges rather than early dominance, as seen when Rickey Henderson’s career record of 1,406 was built on consistent aggression over decades rather than a single explosive year[2]. Comparable cases in recent seasons show that players like Elly De La Cruz and Chandler Simpson, projected for 41 steals, frequently overtake early leaders due to late-season health and lineup stability, making the current 8% probability a reflection of this volatile, high-turnover category[4].

Traders should monitor upcoming roster announcements, injury updates, and manager declarations regarding playing time, as these catalysts directly influence stolen base opportunities. The market leans heavily on the scheduled MLB All-Star break declarations and potential late-June roster moves, which often signal which players will receive the most base-running chances in the final months[3]. Recent news from FOX Sports confirms that the top contenders remain in close contention, suggesting that any shift in playing time could dramatically alter the leader by the settlement window on 28 September 2026[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks MLB: Stolen Bases Leader across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.