"Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

The film *Young Washington*, a PG-13 historical drama about the nation’s first president, opened across 2,700 screens on 4 July to capture the 250th anniversary of American independence. It debuted with an estimated $7.6 million on its first Friday, positioning it as a moderate specialty release in a quiet holiday weekend dominated by Angel Studios’ wide campaign. The market’s current 0% YES probability implies traders expect the film to fail its opening weekend bracket, likely due to underwhelming second-day performance or misaligned audience demand despite patriotic timing.

Historically, patriotic films tied to major anniversaries have shown volatile opening patterns. For instance, *Supergirl* collapsed 76% in its second weekend, losing to a George Washington-themed film, suggesting that even thematic relevance does not guarantee sustained attendance [1]. Comparable indie releases during July 4 weekends often struggle to cross $20 million domestically unless backed by major studio marketing, as seen in *Young Washington*’s forecast range of $23 million+ [4]. The 0% probability may reflect scepticism that the film will meet its lower bracket threshold, given its limited screen count and reliance on niche appeal.

Traders should monitor Saturday and Sunday box office updates from The Numbers, which will confirm the final 3-day gross once studio estimates are replaced with actuals [7]. Key catalysts include Angel Studios’ post-opening press statements, any scheduled Independence Day debates or declarations featuring the film’s cast, and recent campaign-finance disclosures that may influence patriotic sentiment. According to Deadline, the film’s release was timed explicitly for the 250th anniversary, making it the primary narrative hook [2]. If second-day turnout drops sharply, the market will likely resolve to the higher bracket, reinforcing the current bearish stance.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks "Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

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Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

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