Which NFL players will be traded?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market assesses whether a specific NFL player will be traded before the close of the 2025 off-season, with settlement occurring in late July 2026. The 2% implied probability reflects the baseline rarity of mid-roster trades outside the annual draft period and the difficulty of predicting front-office decisions months in advance.

NFL trades occur most frequently during the draft window (April) and the trade deadline (November), with off-season moves typically reserved for players with expiring contracts, underperforming veterans, or those seeking fresh starts after poor seasons. Historical precedent shows that roughly 15–20 notable trades occur annually across the league, though most involve established names or draft picks rather than mid-tier contributors. The low probability here suggests either a player with limited trade appeal or one currently embedded in a stable roster situation. Teams rarely move players during the spring off-season unless salary-cap pressures or coaching changes force their hand, which explains why the crowd has priced this outcome so conservatively.

Traders should monitor team-specific catalysts: coaching staff changes announced before the 2025 season, injury reports affecting player value, and contract restructuring announcements that might signal front-office intentions. The NFL's official transaction log and reporting from sources such as ESPN's Adam Schefter and NFL.com will provide real-time confirmation of any trade activity. Roster construction decisions typically accelerate in March and April as teams finalise their off-season plans, making that window the critical period for resolution.

Methodology

This page tracks Which NFL players will be traded? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. Election Predictions UK routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Election Predictions UK?

Zero. Election Predictions UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.