How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are moving through the Strait of Hormuz again after a six-month blockade, yet recent missile attacks on commercial tankers have created volatile uncertainty for weekly transit counts. The market’s 82% YES probability implies traders expect the finalized IMF Portwatch tally to exceed a specific threshold, betting that recovery momentum outweighs the disruption from Monday night’s strikes by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps [3].

Historical patterns from the 2026 crisis show that traffic can swing wildly depending on geopolitical triggers; after the US–Iran memorandum of understanding was signed in late June, crossings surged to 70 vessels on a single Wednesday before dropping to 12 by Sunday [5]. Conversely, the period between February and March saw near-total blockades with zero outbound commercial movements for 72 hours, illustrating how quickly normal flows can collapse under IRGC pressure [2][6]. The current probability leans on the resilience demonstrated over the weekend, when Kpler recorded 108 verified crossings across three days despite ongoing tensions [3].

Traders should monitor the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) for immediate updates on further projectile strikes, as each incident risks halting transits for days [3]. The settlement window closes on 12 July, meaning the final count depends entirely on whether the 60-day negotiation window established by the recent MoU prevents a second closure [3]. Any announcement from Qatar regarding the stalled indirect talks or fresh declarations from Tehran could instantly alter the daily transit figures before data finalisation [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page tracks How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

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