Colombia Presidential Election

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Colombia will hold its next presidential election on 31 May 2026, with a potential runoff scheduled for 21 June if no candidate achieves an outright majority in the first round. The current market probability of 0% reflects the absence of a named candidate in the resolution criteria; the market resolves to whichever individual wins the election rather than to a binary YES/NO outcome. This structural feature means the crowd probability should be read as reflecting uncertainty about the election's timing or conduct rather than doubt about whether it will occur.

Colombia's electoral history suggests runoff contests are common: the 2022 election between Gustavo Petro and Rodolfo Hernández proceeded to a second round, as did the 2018 contest. Incumbent Petro, elected in 2022, faces constitutional term limits preventing re-election. The fragmented opposition landscape—spanning centre-right parties, the Colombian Conservative Party, and various regional factions—mirrors the competitive but dispersed field seen in previous cycles. Polling aggregators have not yet consolidated consistent data on 2026 frontrunners, though early surveys typically show volatility this far from election day.

Traders should monitor campaign declarations expected in late 2025 and early 2026, formal candidacy registrations with Colombia's electoral authority, and any major policy announcements or coalition formations among opposition blocs. Debates, scheduled for the months preceding the election, historically shift voter preferences. Campaign finance disclosures, required under Colombian law, may reveal organisational strength and donor backing. The settlement window extends to 31 December 2026, providing buffer for official result certification by the Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Colombia Presidential Election plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.