Starmer out by...?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The market concerns whether Keir Starmer will remain Prime Minister throughout 2025, with resolution triggered immediately if he announces resignation or removal before year-end, regardless of implementation date. Labour won the July 2024 general election with a 412-seat majority, providing substantial parliamentary insulation against routine confidence votes. Starmer has held the premiership since 5 September 2024 without significant removal pressure, and the 0% implied probability reflects the structural difficulty of displacing a sitting PM with a working majority within a single calendar year.

Historical precedent shows UK prime ministers rarely exit mid-term absent major scandal or party revolt. Theresa May survived two years despite substantial backbench dissent before announcing resignation in May 2019. Boris Johnson faced coordinated ministerial resignations in July 2022 before stepping down. Margaret Thatcher required a formal leadership challenge in November 1990. These cases suggest removal requires either cascading ministerial departures, a formal party challenge, or personal crisis of substantial magnitude—none currently evident in Labour's parliamentary position or Starmer's standing.

The relevant catalysts centre on Labour's polling trajectory and internal party cohesion. Current polling aggregators show Labour trailing the Conservatives by 15–20 percentage points (UK Polling Report, January 2025), but mid-term polling swings rarely trigger prime ministerial removal in majority governments. Traders should monitor scheduled local elections in May 2025 and any major policy reversals that might trigger coordinated backbench rebellion. The absence of scheduled party leadership elections or confidence mechanisms before December 2025 further constrains removal pathways.

Methodology

This page tracks Starmer out by...? across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.