IR Iran vs. New Zealand - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Iran and New Zealand will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 15 June, with the match kicking off at 9:00 PM ET. The market prices an exact-score outcome at 11% probability, reflecting the difficulty of predicting precise scorelines in international football. This settlement window closes after the final whistle at 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding any extra-time or penalty scenarios.

Historical precedent suggests exact-score markets in World Cup group matches typically cluster around narrow outcomes. In the 2022 tournament, group-stage matches averaged 2.1 goals per game, with scorelines of 1–0, 1–1, and 2–1 accounting for roughly 40% of all results. Iran's recent form provides context: they finished third in their 2026 qualifying group with inconsistent attacking output, averaging 1.4 goals across ten matches. New Zealand qualified through the intercontinental play-off route, indicating a relatively weaker competitive standing. The 11% probability implies traders are pricing in the likelihood of either team scoring multiple goals or the match remaining goalless—outcomes that fragment the probability space across numerous possible scorelines.

Key variables for traders centre on team selection announcements and pre-tournament friendlies scheduled for May and early June 2026. Iran's squad composition will signal their attacking intent, particularly given their historical defensive solidity. New Zealand's preparation schedule and any late injuries to key players merit monitoring through official FIFA communications and national federation statements. Weather conditions at the scheduled venue and any fixture rescheduling due to stadium availability could alter tactical approaches, though such changes would be announced through official World Cup channels well before the settlement window closes.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for IR Iran vs. New Zealand - Exact Score plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Election Predictions UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Election Predictions UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.