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PGA Tour: Rocket Classic Winner

"PGA Tour: Rocket Classic Winner" — live political-market odds plus comparison across the four major prediction venues.

Michael Thorbjornsen 99% Ryan Gerard 1% Davis Riley 1% Matt Wallace 1% Volume: $264K Liquidity: $2.5M Closes: 2 Aug 2026
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PGA Tour: Rocket Classic Winner

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 99% 1% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 99% 1% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Michael Thorbjornsen99%
Ryan Gerard1%
Davis Riley1%
Matt Wallace1%
Kristoffer Ventura1%
Peter Malnati0%
Rickie Fowler0%
Patrick Fishburn0%
Keegan Bradley0%
Doug Ghim0%
Stephan Jaeger0%
Michael Kim0%
Chris Kirk0%
Ricky Castillo0%
Emiliano Grillo0%
Mark Hubbard0%
Johnny Keefer0%
Xander Schauffele0%
Brandt Snedeker0%
Kevin Yu0%
Patrick Cantlay0%
Eric Cole0%
Rico Hoey0%
Sung-Jae Im0%
Benjamin James0%
Gordon Sargent0%
Adam Schenk0%
Neal Shipley0%
Davis Thompson0%
Christiaan Bezuidenhout0%
Akshay Bhatia0%
Tony Finau0%
Chris Gotterup0%
Ben Griffin0%
David Lipsky0%
Max McGreevy0%
Jordan L. Smith0%
J.J. Spaun0%
Sam Stevens0%
Aaron Wise0%
Matt Kuchar0%
Zach Bauchou0%
Corey Conners0%
Steven Fisk0%
Max Greyserman0%
Ryo Hisatsune0%
Billy Horschel0%
Si Woo Kim0%
Jackson Koivun0%
Henry Lebioda0%
Stefano Mazzoli0%
Matt McCarty0%
Keita Nakajima0%
Thorbjorn Olesen0%
Jordan Spieth0%
Jackson Suber0%
Adam Svensson0%
Nick Taylor0%
Karl Vilips0%
Vince Whaley0%
Cameron Young0%
Justin Lower0%
Zac Blair0%
Jimmy Stanger0%
Chandler Blanchet0%
Jacob Bridgeman0%
Brian Campbell0%
Rafael Campos0%
Luke Clanton0%
Pierceson Coody0%
Joel Dahmen0%
Brad Dalke0%
Cam Davis0%
Ze-Cheng Dou0%
Austin Eckroat0%
Harris English0%
A.J. Ewart0%
Brice Garnett0%
Russell Henley0%
Garrick Higgo0%
Joe Highsmith0%
Lee Hodges0%
Tom Hoge0%
Nicolai Hojgaard0%
Mackenzie Hughes0%
Patton Kizzire0%
Jake Knapp0%
Hideki Matsuyama0%
Mac Meissner0%
Matthieu Pavon0%
Marco Penge0%
Andrew Putnam0%
Chad Ramey0%
Kevin Roy0%
Ryan Ruffels0%
Matthias Schmid0%
Webb Simpson0%
Kevin Streelman0%
Dylan Wu0%
Sudarshan Yellamaraju0%
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Other0%

Market context

Market consensus: 99% chance of pga tour: rocket classic winner. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market will resolve according to the listed player who wins the 2026 Rocket Classic tournament. If a listed player is eliminated from contention for the Rocket Classic tourna…

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for PGA Tour: Rocket Classic Winner plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

How accurate are political prediction markets?
Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
What resolution source is used for elections?
Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
How fast do political markets react to news?
High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
David ParkDavid ParkSports Data AnalystandOliver HughesOliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

Trade PGA Tour: Rocket Classic Winner on Election Predictions UK

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