Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
25% | 75% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
25% | 75% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Scottie Scheffler | 25% YES | 76% NO |
| Jordan Spieth | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| Keith Mitchell | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Pierceson Coody | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Ryo Hisatsune | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Wyndham Clark | 4% YES | 96% NO |
Market context
The 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson is a PGA Tour event scheduled for May at TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. The tournament format follows standard 72-hole stroke play with a field of approximately 156 players competing for the title. Settlement occurs upon official PGA Tour confirmation of the winner, with the market resolving to "Other" should an unlisted competitor claim victory.
Historical precedent suggests 25% implied probability for a named player reflects moderate confidence in that individual's chances relative to the broader field. PGA Tour events at this venue typically see winning scores between 15–20 under par, with competitive depth meaning favourites rarely exceed 12–15% individual win probability. The CJ CUP Byron Nelson has attracted strong international fields in recent editions, reducing concentration among top-ranked players and supporting the current probability calibration across listed contenders.
Traders should monitor official PGA Tour field announcements as the May 2026 date approaches, particularly regarding injury status and recent form of listed players. Course conditions at TPC Craig Ranch—notably rough depth and green speeds—historically favour ball-strikers with consistent iron play. Recent tournament results from listed competitors in early 2026 will provide direct evidence of current form, whilst any late withdrawals or eligibility changes trigger immediate market adjustments under the tournament's elimination clause.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for PGA Tour: THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Winner plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
Trade PGA Tour: THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson Winner on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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