Valencia: Alejandro Tabilo vs Dusan Lajovic

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Alejandro Tabilo of Chile faces Dusan Lajovic of Serbia in a first-round match at the Valencia Open 500 tournament, scheduled for 15 May 2026. The current crowd-implied probability of 100% YES reflects near-certainty that the match will be completed with a decisive winner. This extreme confidence suggests either substantial pre-match information favouring completion or minimal perceived risk of cancellation or withdrawal at this stage.

Historical context for ATP 500 events shows match cancellations remain rare once draws are finalised and players arrive at the venue. Tabilo, ranked in the top 30, and Lajovic, a veteran competitor with extensive tour experience, both have strong incentives to play. Neither player has a recent pattern of late withdrawals. Comparable early-round matches at established tournaments like Valencia typically proceed as scheduled unless weather, injury, or administrative issues intervene. The 100% probability reflects the baseline expectation that professional players honour their commitments in established tournaments.

Traders should monitor official ATP communications and tournament updates through the Valencia Open's media channels for any injury announcements or scheduling changes in the week preceding the match. Court surface conditions and weather forecasts for Valencia in mid-May could theoretically affect proceedings, though indoor or covered courts minimise this risk. The settlement window extends to 22 May, providing a seven-day buffer beyond the scheduled date. Any significant player injury or tournament disruption would likely be announced through ATP or tournament official channels before the match begins.

Methodology

This page tracks Valencia: Alejandro Tabilo vs Dusan Lajovic across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. PolyGram routes every trade through to Polymarket — at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.