Market statistics
- Total volume
- $414K
- 24h volume
- $414K
- Liquidity
- $785K
- Open interest
- $339K
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Available prediction outcomes (10)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
This market refers to the tennis match between James Watt and Harry Wendelken in the Birmingham, originally scheduled for June 2, 2026 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'James Watt' if James Watt advances against Harry Wendelken. This market will resolve to 'Harry Wendelken' if Harry Wendelken advances against James Watt. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolv
Wikipedia Context
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Birmingham AmericansThe Birmingham Americans were a professional American football team located in Birmingham, Alabama. They were members of the four-team Central Division of the World Football League (WFL). The Americans, founded in late December 1973, played in the upstart league's inaugural season in 1974. The team was owned by William "Bill" Putnam, doing business as Alabam
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Birmingham TimesThe Birmingham Times is a weekly African-American newspaper published in Birmingham, Alabama.
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Christadelphians
The Christadelphians are a restorationist and Unitarian Christian denomination. The name means 'brothers in Christ', from the Greek words for Christ (Christos) and brothers (adelphoi).
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James Bermingham (Irish Republican Brotherhood)James Bermingham (1849–1907) was a prominent "advanced nationalist" in Dublin during the last quarter of the nineteenth and early part of the twentieth centuries.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Birmingham: James Watt vs Harry Wendelken plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
FAQ
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Which political events have the biggest volume?
- US Presidential election, party nominations (DNC/RNC), Senate majorities, individual state outcomes (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), and major European elections. Peak markets reach $50-500M per event.
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