Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 100% |
| Wyoming 1H O/U 12.5 | 100% |
| Wyoming 1H O/U 14.5 | 100% |
| Wyoming 1H O/U 16.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 100% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| Wyoming O/U 23.5 | 91% |
| O/U 37.5 | 89% |
| Spread -1.5 | 80% |
| O/U 41.5 | 80% |
| 2H Moneyline | 78% |
| O/U 43.5 | 75% |
| Spread -2.5 | 74% |
| Spread -3.5 | 70% |
| O/U 45.5 | 70% |
| Spread -4.5 | 66% |
| Spread -6.5 | 62% |
| O/U 51.5 | 62% |
| Spread -5.5 | 60% |
| O/U 53.5 | 59% |
| O/U 57.5 | 56% |
| Air Force O/U 20.5 | 56% |
| Spread -7.5 | 54% |
| O/U 49.5 | 54% |
| Spread -16.5 | 53% |
| Spread -17.5 | 53% |
| O/U 59.5 | 53% |
| Spread -20.5 | 52% |
| O/U 63.5 | 52% |
| O/U 65.5 | 51% |
| O/U 67.5 | 51% |
| Air Force Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 51% |
| Wyoming Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 51% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| O/U 71.5 | 50% |
| O/U 73.5 | 50% |
| O/U 75.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Air Force O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Air Force O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Air Force 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Air Force 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Air Force 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Air Force vs. Wyoming: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Air Force vs. Wyoming: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Air Force vs. Wyoming: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Air Force 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Air Force 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Air Force Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Air Force vs. Wyoming: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Air Force vs. Wyoming: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Air Force vs. Wyoming: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Air Force O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 49% |
| Spread -8.5 | 49% |
| O/U 39.5 | 49% |
| Wyoming Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 49% |
| Spread -10.5 | 43% |
| Air Force O/U 23.5 | 43% |
| O/U 47.5 | 37% |
| O/U 55.5 | 37% |
| Spread -13.5 | 34% |
| Spread -14.5 | 31% |
| Air Force O/U 26.5 | 31% |
| Air Force vs. Wyoming | 19% |
| O/U 61.5 | 19% |
| Spread -1.5 | 16% |
| Spread -3.5 | 12% |
| Spread -2.5 | 12% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 10% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 10% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 10% |
| Spread -5.5 | 9% |
| Spread -4.5 | 9% |
| Spread -6.5 | 8% |
| Spread -7.5 | 7% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -20.5 | 2% |
| Spread -17.5 | 2% |
| Spread -16.5 | 2% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 0% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Air Force 1H O/U 11.5 | 0% |
| Air Force 1H O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| Air Force 1H O/U 15.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1H Moneyline | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 0% |
Market context
The Air Force vs. Wyoming prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. In the upcoming college football game between Air Force and Wyoming, scheduled for October 23 at 9:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Air Force" if Air Force win the game. This market will resolve …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $299K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Air Force vs. Wyoming plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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