Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| O/U 35.5 | 90% |
| O/U 37.5 | 82% |
| O/U 39.5 | 77% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| Alabama O/U 20.5 | 76% |
| O/U 41.5 | 72% |
| O/U 43.5 | 68% |
| Spread -0.5 | 65% |
| O/U 45.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 63% |
| Alabama vs. Tennessee | 60% |
| Spread -1.5 | 56% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| Alabama O/U 23.5 | 53% |
| Tennessee O/U 23.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 53% |
| O/U 47.5 | 52% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Alabama Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 51% |
| Alabama Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Alabama O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Alabama O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Alabama O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Alabama 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Alabama 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Alabama 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Alabama 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Alabama 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Alabama 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Alabama vs. Tennessee: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Alabama vs. Tennessee: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Alabama vs. Tennessee: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Alabama 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alabama 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Alabama Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Alabama vs. Tennessee: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alabama vs. Tennessee: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Alabama vs. Tennessee: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Alabama O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Tennessee O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Tennessee Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 49% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 46% |
| Spread -3.5 | 44% |
| Spread -4.5 | 43% |
| O/U 49.5 | 43% |
| O/U 51.5 | 40% |
| Spread -5.5 | 38% |
| Spread -1.5 | 38% |
| Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 33% |
| O/U 53.5 | 32% |
| Spread -8.5 | 31% |
| Spread -7.5 | 30% |
| Spread -3.5 | 29% |
| O/U 61.5 | 29% |
| O/U 63.5 | 28% |
| Spread -4.5 | 27% |
| O/U 55.5 | 27% |
| O/U 67.5 | 26% |
| O/U 69.5 | 26% |
| O/U 73.5 | 25% |
| O/U 75.5 | 25% |
| Tennessee O/U 29.5 | 25% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 23% |
| O/U 57.5 | 22% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 22% |
| Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| Spread -6.5 | 21% |
| Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| O/U 59.5 | 19% |
| Spread -8.5 | 18% |
| Spread -14.5 | 17% |
| Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| Spread -10.5 | 15% |
| Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| Spread -14.5 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 10% |
| Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| O/U 65.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 7% |
| O/U 71.5 | 4% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, alabama vs. tennessee stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming college football game between Alabama and Tennessee, scheduled for October 17 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Alabama" if Alabama win the game. This mark…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $463K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Alabama vs. Tennessee plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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