How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are political prediction markets legal in my country?

It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.

Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt | Election Predictions 2026

Name: Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt
Start: 2026-10-06T00:57:34.000Z
End: 2026-10-17T23:00:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	85%	15%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	85%	15%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Trade this market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Trade this market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
Spread -0.5	85%
Spread -2.5	84%
O/U 35.5	81%
Spread -3.5	76%
1H Spread -4.5	73%
Spread -1.5	71%
O/U 37.5	71%
4Q O/U 7.5	70%
Arkansas O/U 20.5	69%
Spread -5.5	68%
4Q O/U 13.5	66%
3Q O/U 10.5	63%
4Q Spread -2.5	62%
Spread -6.5	61%
Spread -4.5	60%
4Q Spread -3.5	57%
3Q O/U 7.5	55%
Spread -7.5	54%
1Q Spread -3.5	54%
3Q O/U 16.5	53%
1Q Spread -0.5	53%
1Q Spread -1.5	53%
4Q O/U 16.5	52%
2Q O/U 13.5	51%
Vanderbilt O/U 23.5	51%
Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5	51%
1H Spread -2.5	51%
2H Spread -2.5	51%
2Q Spread -5.5	51%
Spread -20.5	50%
Spread -17.5	50%
Spread -16.5	50%
Spread -8.5	50%
Spread -0.5	50%
O/U 39.5	50%
O/U 41.5	50%
O/U 45.5	50%
O/U 53.5	50%
O/U 57.5	50%
O/U 59.5	50%
O/U 63.5	50%
O/U 65.5	50%
O/U 69.5	50%
O/U 71.5	50%
O/U 75.5	50%
1H O/U 21.5	50%
1H O/U 24.5	50%
1H O/U 27.5	50%
1H O/U 30.5	50%
1H O/U 33.5	50%
2H O/U 21.5	50%
2H O/U 24.5	50%
2H O/U 27.5	50%
2H O/U 30.5	50%
2H O/U 33.5	50%
2Q O/U 10.5	50%
2Q O/U 16.5	50%
2Q O/U 19.5	50%
3Q O/U 13.5	50%
3Q O/U 19.5	50%
4Q O/U 10.5	50%
4Q O/U 19.5	50%
Arkansas O/U 26.5	50%
Arkansas O/U 29.5	50%
Arkansas O/U 32.5	50%
Vanderbilt O/U 26.5	50%
Vanderbilt O/U 29.5	50%
Vanderbilt O/U 32.5	50%
Vanderbilt O/U 35.5	50%
Arkansas 1H O/U 11.5	50%
Arkansas 1H O/U 13.5	50%
Arkansas 1H O/U 15.5	50%
Vanderbilt 1H O/U 12.5	50%
Vanderbilt 1H O/U 14.5	50%
Vanderbilt 1H O/U 16.5	50%
Arkansas 2H O/U 11.5	50%
Arkansas 2H O/U 13.5	50%
Arkansas 2H O/U 15.5	50%
Vanderbilt 2H O/U 12.5	50%
Vanderbilt 2H O/U 14.5	50%
Vanderbilt 2H O/U 16.5	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q2	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q3	50%
Pick-Six Scored	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q4	50%
Game Goes to Overtime	50%
Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5	50%
Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown	50%
Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5	50%
Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5	50%
Arkansas Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5	50%
Arkansas Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5	50%
Arkansas Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5	50%
Vanderbilt Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5	50%
Vanderbilt Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5	50%
Arkansas Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5	50%
Vanderbilt Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5	50%
Arkansas Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5	50%
Arkansas Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5	50%
Vanderbilt Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5	50%
Vanderbilt Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5	50%
Arkansas Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5	50%
Vanderbilt Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5	50%
Arkansas Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5	50%
Vanderbilt Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5	50%
Arkansas Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5	50%
Vanderbilt Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5	50%
Vanderbilt Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5	50%
Arkansas Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5	50%
Arkansas Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5	50%
Vanderbilt Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5	50%
Arkansas Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5	50%
Vanderbilt Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5	50%
Vanderbilt Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5	50%
Arkansas 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Vanderbilt 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Arkansas 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Vanderbilt 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Arkansas Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Arkansas Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5	50%
Vanderbilt Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Vanderbilt Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Vanderbilt Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5	50%
Arkansas Total Receptions: O/U 14.5	50%
Arkansas Total Receptions: O/U 19.5	50%
Vanderbilt Total Receptions: O/U 14.5	50%
Vanderbilt Total Receptions: O/U 19.5	50%
Arkansas Total Receptions: O/U 24.5	50%
Vanderbilt Total Receptions: O/U 24.5	50%
Arkansas Total First Downs: O/U 21.5	50%
Arkansas Total First Downs: O/U 19.5	50%
Arkansas Total First Downs: O/U 23.5	50%
Vanderbilt Total First Downs: O/U 21.5	50%
Vanderbilt Total First Downs: O/U 19.5	50%
Vanderbilt Total First Downs: O/U 23.5	50%
Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5	50%
Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5	50%
1H Spread -0.5	50%
1H Spread -3.5	50%
1H Spread -5.5	50%
2H Spread -0.5	50%
2H Spread -3.5	50%
2H Spread -4.5	50%
2H Spread -5.5	50%
2H Spread -7.5	50%
2Q Spread -1.5	50%
2Q Spread -0.5	50%
2Q Spread -1.5	50%
2Q Spread -2.5	50%
2Q Spread -3.5	50%
3Q Spread -1.5	50%
3Q Spread -0.5	50%
3Q Spread -1.5	50%
3Q Spread -5.5	50%
4Q Spread -1.5	50%
4Q Spread -0.5	50%
4Q Spread -1.5	50%
4Q Spread -5.5	50%
2H Moneyline	50%
Arkansas O/U 2.5	50%
Vanderbilt O/U 3.5	50%
2Q Moneyline	50%
3Q Moneyline	50%
4Q Moneyline	50%
Arkansas Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	49%
1H Spread -7.5	49%
O/U 43.5	48%
O/U 73.5	48%
Arkansas O/U 23.5	48%
1Q Spread -0.5	48%
1Q Moneyline	48%
1Q O/U 7.5	47%
1Q O/U 10.5	47%
Spread -10.5	46%
1Q O/U 13.5	46%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q1	45%
2Q O/U 7.5	44%
O/U 49.5	41%
Spread -8.5	40%
Spread -13.5	39%
O/U 47.5	38%
Spread -14.5	37%
Spread -13.5	35%
Spread -16.5	33%
3Q Spread -3.5	31%
Spread -17.5	30%
O/U 51.5	28%
3Q Spread -2.5	26%
Spread -20.5	24%
Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt	23%
Spread -1.5	21%
Spread -3.5	20%
Spread -5.5	18%
Spread -2.5	18%
O/U 55.5	17%
Spread -10.5	14%
Spread -4.5	13%
1H Moneyline	12%
Spread -14.5	9%
Spread -6.5	9%
Spread -7.5	8%
O/U 61.5	8%
O/U 67.5	5%
1Q O/U 16.5	1%
1Q O/U 19.5	1%
1Q Spread -3.5	1%
1Q Spread -1.5	1%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, arkansas vs. vanderbilt stands at 85% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming college football game between Arkansas and Vanderbilt, scheduled for October 17 at 7:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arkansas" if Arkansas win the game. This …

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices Spread -0.5 at 85% for "Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt".

Spread -0.5 85% Other 15%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $162K.

Methodology

This page tracks Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.

Resolution & payout

For political markets the resolution source is decisive. Polymarket defines a concrete source per contract (e.g. AP, Reuters, official electoral commission) and uses the UMA Optimistic Oracle as the on-chain dispute mechanism. With a clearly defined outcome the USDC payout lands within minutes of the final confirmation.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?: Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?: Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?: Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
Are political prediction markets legal in my country?: It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?: Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.

David ParkSports Data Analystand

Oliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

Trade Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt on Election Predictions UK

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

Open live market →

Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Trade Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt on Election Predictions UK

Related live markets

US-Iran ceasefire continues through 2026?

Brazil Presidential Election

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by 2027?

Fed Decision in October?

Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?

Related Topics