Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
99% | 1% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
99% | 1% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 99% |
| Spread -6.5 | 97% |
| Spread -1.5 | 96% |
| Spread -2.5 | 96% |
| Spread -3.5 | 96% |
| Spread -4.5 | 96% |
| Spread -5.5 | 96% |
| Spread -7.5 | 96% |
| O/U 37.5 | 96% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 95% |
| Spread -9.5 | 95% |
| Spread -10.5 | 94% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 94% |
| Spread -13.5 | 93% |
| Spread -11.5 | 93% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 93% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 93% |
| O/U 43.5 | 92% |
| Spread -14.5 | 90% |
| Spread -16.5 | 88% |
| Spread -17.5 | 87% |
| O/U 35.5 | 87% |
| O/U 39.5 | 85% |
| O/U 47.5 | 84% |
| O/U 41.5 | 83% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 83% |
| Spread -20.5 | 82% |
| O/U 49.5 | 80% |
| O/U 45.5 | 78% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 78% |
| Spread -21.5 | 78% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 75% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| O/U 51.5 | 73% |
| Spread -24.5 | 73% |
| Spread -18.5 | 72% |
| Spread -19.5 | 69% |
| Spread -27.5 | 69% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 67% |
| Spread -22.5 | 64% |
| O/U 55.5 | 63% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 62% |
| Spread -30.5 | 61% |
| O/U 53.5 | 60% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 58% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 56% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 54% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 53% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 53% |
| Texas Tech 1H O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| Texas Tech 1H O/U 14.5 | 53% |
| Texas Tech 1H O/U 16.5 | 53% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| Texas Tech O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| Texas Tech Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| O/U 75.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Arizona State vs. Texas Tech: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Arizona State vs. Texas Tech: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State vs. Texas Tech: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State vs. Texas Tech: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State vs. Texas Tech: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arizona State vs. Texas Tech: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Arizona State O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Arizona State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Texas Tech O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 49% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 49% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 49% |
| Texas Tech Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 49% |
| Arizona State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 49% |
| Texas Tech 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Texas Tech Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Spread -28.5 | 49% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 49% |
| O/U 61.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 47% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 47% |
| Spread -31.5 | 44% |
| O/U 59.5 | 43% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 41% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 38% |
| O/U 63.5 | 36% |
| O/U 65.5 | 34% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 34% |
| O/U 69.5 | 29% |
| O/U 67.5 | 28% |
| O/U 71.5 | 28% |
| O/U 73.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 25% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 25% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 24% |
| Arizona State O/U 20.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Arizona State O/U 23.5 | 11% |
| Spread -2.5 | 4% |
| Spread -1.5 | 4% |
| Spread -10.5 | 3% |
| Spread -7.5 | 3% |
| Spread -6.5 | 3% |
| Spread -5.5 | 3% |
| Spread -4.5 | 3% |
| Spread -3.5 | 3% |
| 1H Moneyline | 3% |
| Arizona State vs. Texas Tech | 2% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 99% probability to arizona state vs. texas tech. In the upcoming college football game between Arizona State and Texas Tech, scheduled for October 17 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arizona State" if Arizona State win the game. This marke…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $167K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Arizona State vs. Texas Tech plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How accurate are political prediction markets?
- Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
- What resolution source is used for elections?
- Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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