How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

How fast do political markets react to news?

High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.

Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?

Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.

Minnesota vs. Washington | Election Predictions 2026

Name: Minnesota vs. Washington
Start: 2026-09-21T20:20:15.000Z
End: 2026-09-27T03:00:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	100%	0%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	100%	0%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Trade this market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Trade this market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
O/U 25.5	100%
O/U 27.5	100%
O/U 29.5	100%
1H O/U 17.5	100%
1H O/U 20.5	100%
1H O/U 23.5	100%
1H O/U 26.5	100%
1H O/U 29.5	100%
1Q Spread -1.5	100%
1Q O/U 3.5	100%
1Q O/U 6.5	100%
1Q O/U 9.5	100%
1Q O/U 12.5	100%
2Q Spread -0.5	100%
2Q Spread -2.5	100%
2Q O/U 7.5	100%
2Q O/U 10.5	100%
2Q O/U 13.5	100%
2Q O/U 16.5	100%
Minnesota O/U 11.5	100%
Minnesota O/U 14.5	100%
Minnesota O/U 17.5	100%
Minnesota O/U 20.5	100%
Minnesota 1H O/U 5.5	100%
Minnesota 1H O/U 7.5	100%
Minnesota 1H O/U 9.5	100%
1H Moneyline	100%
1Q Moneyline	100%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q2	100%
O/U 37.5	95%
O/U 43.5	82%
O/U 33.5	81%
O/U 35.5	77%
Minnesota vs. Washington	75%
O/U 31.5	74%
O/U 39.5	73%
O/U 41.5	73%
O/U 45.5	72%
O/U 47.5	65%
Spread -3.5	62%
Spread -4.5	59%
O/U 51.5	58%
O/U 49.5	55%
O/U 53.5	54%
Spread -6.5	52%
Spread -0.5	52%
Spread -12.5	50%
Spread -16.5	50%
Spread -18.5	50%
Spread -23.5	50%
Spread -24.5	50%
Spread -26.5	50%
Spread -30.5	50%
2H Spread -2.5	50%
2H Spread -4.5	50%
2H Spread -5.5	50%
2H Spread -6.5	50%
2H Spread -7.5	50%
2H Spread -9.5	50%
2H O/U 16.5	50%
2H O/U 19.5	50%
2H O/U 22.5	50%
2H O/U 25.5	50%
2H O/U 28.5	50%
3Q Spread -1.5	50%
3Q Spread -0.5	50%
3Q Spread -1.5	50%
3Q Spread -2.5	50%
3Q Spread -3.5	50%
3Q Spread -5.5	50%
3Q O/U 3.5	50%
3Q O/U 6.5	50%
3Q O/U 9.5	50%
3Q O/U 12.5	50%
3Q O/U 15.5	50%
4Q Spread -1.5	50%
4Q Spread -0.5	50%
4Q Spread -1.5	50%
4Q Spread -2.5	50%
4Q Spread -3.5	50%
4Q Spread -5.5	50%
4Q O/U 4.5	50%
4Q O/U 7.5	50%
4Q O/U 10.5	50%
4Q O/U 13.5	50%
4Q O/U 16.5	50%
Minnesota O/U 23.5	50%
Washington O/U 21.5	50%
Washington O/U 24.5	50%
Washington O/U 27.5	50%
Washington O/U 30.5	50%
Washington O/U 33.5	50%
Minnesota 2H O/U 6.5	50%
Minnesota 2H O/U 8.5	50%
Minnesota 2H O/U 10.5	50%
Washington 2H O/U 11.5	50%
Washington 2H O/U 13.5	50%
Washington 2H O/U 15.5	50%
2H Moneyline	50%
Minnesota O/U 2.5	50%
Washington O/U 3.5	50%
3Q Moneyline	50%
4Q Moneyline	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2	50%
Game Goes to Overtime	50%
Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown	50%
Minnesota vs. Washington: Total Touchdowns O/U 4.5	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q3	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q4	50%
Minnesota vs. Washington: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5	50%
Pick-Six Scored	50%
Minnesota vs. Washington: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5	50%
Minnesota Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5	50%
Minnesota Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5	50%
Washington Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5	50%
Minnesota Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5	50%
Washington Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5	50%
Washington Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5	50%
Minnesota Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5	50%
Minnesota Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5	50%
Minnesota Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5	50%
Washington Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5	50%
Washington Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5	50%
Washington Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5	50%
Minnesota Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5	50%
Minnesota Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5	50%
Minnesota Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5	50%
Washington Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5	50%
Washington Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5	50%
Minnesota Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5	50%
Minnesota Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5	50%
Minnesota Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5	50%
Washington Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5	50%
Washington Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5	50%
Washington Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5	50%
Washington Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5	50%
Minnesota 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Washington 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Minnesota 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Minnesota Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Washington 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Minnesota Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5	50%
Minnesota Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Washington Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Washington Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Washington Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5	50%
Minnesota Total Receptions: O/U 19.5	50%
Minnesota Total Receptions: O/U 14.5	50%
Minnesota Total Receptions: O/U 24.5	50%
Washington Total Receptions: O/U 19.5	50%
Washington Total Receptions: O/U 14.5	50%
Washington Total Receptions: O/U 24.5	50%
Minnesota Total First Downs: O/U 19.5	50%
Minnesota Total First Downs: O/U 21.5	50%
Minnesota Total First Downs: O/U 23.5	50%
Washington Total First Downs: O/U 19.5	50%
Washington Total First Downs: O/U 23.5	50%
Washington Total First Downs: O/U 21.5	50%
Minnesota vs. Washington: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5	50%
Minnesota vs. Washington: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5	50%
Minnesota vs. Washington: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5	50%
Minnesota O/U 1.5	50%
Spread -14.5	49%
Spread -15.5	49%
Spread -27.5	49%
Spread -20.5	47%
Spread -7.5	45%
Spread -17.5	44%
O/U 59.5	42%
Spread -9.5	41%
O/U 57.5	41%
O/U 63.5	37%
Spread -8.5	36%
O/U 65.5	36%
Spread -10.5	35%
O/U 55.5	28%
1H Spread -2.5	24%
Spread -1.5	21%
Spread -2.5	19%
Spread -3.5	14%
O/U 61.5	14%
Spread -13.5	13%
Spread -4.5	11%
Spread -5.5	9%
Spread -6.5	9%
Spread -7.5	6%
Spread -10.5	4%
Spread -11.5	3%
1H Spread -4.5	0%
1H Spread -5.5	0%
1H Spread -6.5	0%
1H Spread -7.5	0%
1H Spread -9.5	0%
1Q Spread -0.5	0%
1Q Spread -1.5	0%
1Q Spread -2.5	0%
1Q Spread -3.5	0%
1Q Spread -5.5	0%
1Q O/U 15.5	0%
2Q Spread -3.5	0%
2Q Spread -4.5	0%
2Q Spread -5.5	0%
2Q Spread -7.5	0%
2Q O/U 19.5	0%
Washington 1H O/U 14.5	0%
Washington 1H O/U 16.5	0%
Washington 1H O/U 18.5	0%
2Q Moneyline	0%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q1	0%

Market context

The Minnesota vs. Washington prediction market currently prices this outcome at 100% YES. In the upcoming college football game between Minnesota and Washington, scheduled for September 26 at 11:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Minnesota" if Minnesota win the game. This market will re…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices O/U 25.5 at 100% for "Minnesota vs. Washington".

O/U 25.5 100% Other 0%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $1.3M.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Minnesota vs. Washington plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?: Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?: Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
How fast do political markets react to news?: High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?: Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?: Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.

David ParkSports Data Analystand

Oliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

Trade Minnesota vs. Washington on Election Predictions UK

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Minnesota vs. Washington

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Trade Minnesota vs. Washington on Election Predictions UK

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