How accurate are political prediction markets?

Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.

What resolution source is used for elections?

Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.

Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?

Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.

Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?

Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.

Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?

Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.

Navy vs. UTSA UK Odds 2026 | Election Predictions

Name: Navy vs. UTSA
Start: 2026-10-06T01:11:06.000Z
End: 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z

Platform comparison

Platform	YES odds	NO odds	Fee	KYC	Settlement
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker)	100%	0%	0% (USDC on-chain)	No-KYC up to $1,500	USDC, auto via UMA oracle	Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com	100%	0%	0%	Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU	USDC, on-chain	Trade this market →
Kalshi kalshi.com	—	—	Up to 7% per trade	US-only, KYC required	USD	Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange betfair.com	—	—	2-5% commission	Full KYC from first trade	GBP / EUR	Trade this market →
Manifold Markets manifold.markets	—	—	Play-money (mana)	None — play-money	Mana (no cash-out)	Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

Outcome	Probability
2Q O/U 7.5	100%
2Q O/U 10.5	100%
2Q O/U 13.5	100%
Navy 1H O/U 11.5	100%
Navy 1H O/U 13.5	100%
1Q Spread -3.5	100%
1Q Spread -1.5	100%
1Q Spread -0.5	100%
1Q Moneyline	100%
O/U 39.5	98%
O/U 45.5	95%
UTSA O/U 23.5	92%
1H O/U 27.5	91%
1H O/U 30.5	91%
O/U 51.5	90%
1H O/U 21.5	90%
1H O/U 24.5	90%
1H O/U 33.5	90%
2Q O/U 16.5	90%
2Q O/U 19.5	90%
UTSA 1H O/U 12.5	90%
UTSA 1H O/U 14.5	90%
UTSA 1H O/U 16.5	90%
Navy O/U 20.5	88%
O/U 57.5	87%
O/U 53.5	86%
O/U 47.5	83%
O/U 49.5	83%
O/U 55.5	83%
Spread -0.5	80%
Spread -1.5	74%
O/U 59.5	73%
O/U 61.5	68%
Spread -2.5	67%
Spread -5.5	66%
O/U 63.5	65%
1H Spread -2.5	65%
1H Spread -3.5	65%
Spread -3.5	61%
Spread -4.5	56%
O/U 67.5	54%
Spread -6.5	52%
O/U 65.5	51%
4Q O/U 19.5	51%
Navy O/U 23.5	51%
Game Goes to Overtime	51%
Navy Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5	51%
Navy Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5	51%
UTSA Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5	51%
UTSA Total First Downs: O/U 23.5	51%
2Q Spread -0.5	51%
3Q Spread -3.5	51%
4Q Spread -5.5	51%
Spread -20.5	50%
Spread -17.5	50%
Spread -16.5	50%
Spread -8.5	50%
Spread -0.5	50%
O/U 35.5	50%
O/U 37.5	50%
O/U 41.5	50%
O/U 43.5	50%
2H O/U 21.5	50%
2H O/U 24.5	50%
2H O/U 27.5	50%
2H O/U 30.5	50%
2H O/U 33.5	50%
3Q O/U 7.5	50%
3Q O/U 10.5	50%
3Q O/U 13.5	50%
3Q O/U 16.5	50%
3Q O/U 19.5	50%
4Q O/U 7.5	50%
4Q O/U 10.5	50%
4Q O/U 13.5	50%
4Q O/U 16.5	50%
Navy O/U 26.5	50%
Navy O/U 29.5	50%
Navy O/U 32.5	50%
UTSA O/U 26.5	50%
UTSA O/U 29.5	50%
UTSA O/U 32.5	50%
UTSA O/U 35.5	50%
Navy 1H O/U 15.5	50%
Navy 2H O/U 11.5	50%
Navy 2H O/U 13.5	50%
Navy 2H O/U 15.5	50%
UTSA 2H O/U 12.5	50%
UTSA 2H O/U 14.5	50%
UTSA 2H O/U 16.5	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2	50%
Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q3	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q2	50%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q4	50%
Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown	50%
Pick-Six Scored	50%
Navy vs. UTSA: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5	50%
Navy vs. UTSA: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5	50%
Navy vs. UTSA: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5	50%
Navy Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5	50%
Navy Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5	50%
UTSA Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5	50%
UTSA Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5	50%
UTSA Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5	50%
UTSA Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5	50%
Navy Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5	50%
Navy Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5	50%
UTSA Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5	50%
Navy Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5	50%
UTSA Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5	50%
Navy Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5	50%
Navy Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5	50%
UTSA Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5	50%
UTSA Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5	50%
Navy Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5	50%
Navy Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5	50%
Navy Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5	50%
UTSA Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5	50%
UTSA Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5	50%
UTSA Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5	50%
Navy 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Navy 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
UTSA 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
UTSA 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Navy Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
Navy Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
Navy Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5	50%
UTSA Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5	50%
UTSA Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5	50%
UTSA Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5	50%
Navy Total Receptions: O/U 14.5	50%
Navy Total Receptions: O/U 19.5	50%
Navy Total Receptions: O/U 24.5	50%
UTSA Total Receptions: O/U 14.5	50%
UTSA Total Receptions: O/U 19.5	50%
UTSA Total Receptions: O/U 24.5	50%
Navy Total First Downs: O/U 19.5	50%
Navy Total First Downs: O/U 21.5	50%
Navy Total First Downs: O/U 23.5	50%
UTSA Total First Downs: O/U 19.5	50%
UTSA Total First Downs: O/U 21.5	50%
Navy vs. UTSA: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5	50%
Navy vs. UTSA: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5	50%
1H Spread -0.5	50%
1H Spread -5.5	50%
2H Spread -0.5	50%
2H Spread -2.5	50%
2H Spread -3.5	50%
2H Spread -4.5	50%
2H Spread -5.5	50%
2H Spread -7.5	50%
2Q Spread -1.5	50%
2Q Spread -1.5	50%
2Q Spread -2.5	50%
2Q Spread -3.5	50%
2Q Spread -5.5	50%
3Q Spread -1.5	50%
3Q Spread -0.5	50%
3Q Spread -1.5	50%
3Q Spread -2.5	50%
3Q Spread -5.5	50%
4Q Spread -1.5	50%
4Q Spread -0.5	50%
4Q Spread -1.5	50%
4Q Spread -2.5	50%
4Q Spread -3.5	50%
2H Moneyline	50%
Navy O/U 3.5	50%
UTSA O/U 4.5	50%
1H Moneyline	50%
2Q Moneyline	50%
3Q Moneyline	50%
4Q Moneyline	50%
UTSA O/U 3.5	50%
Navy O/U 2.5	50%
Navy vs. UTSA: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5	49%
Spread -8.5	45%
1H Spread -4.5	43%
Spread -7.5	42%
O/U 71.5	41%
O/U 69.5	40%
O/U 73.5	35%
Spread -13.5	33%
Spread -1.5	28%
Navy vs. UTSA	27%
Spread -2.5	25%
Spread -10.5	25%
O/U 75.5	24%
Spread -14.5	21%
Spread -3.5	18%
Spread -4.5	17%
Spread -16.5	17%
1H Spread -7.5	17%
Spread -6.5	16%
Spread -17.5	16%
Spread -20.5	12%
Spread -5.5	11%
Spread -14.5	10%
Spread -13.5	9%
Spread -7.5	9%
Spread -10.5	8%
1Q O/U 7.5	0%
1Q O/U 10.5	0%
1Q O/U 13.5	0%
1Q O/U 16.5	0%
1Q O/U 19.5	0%
Both Teams to Score Points - Q1	0%
1Q Spread -0.5	0%
1Q Spread -1.5	0%
1Q Spread -3.5	0%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, navy vs. utsa stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming college football game between Navy and UTSA, scheduled for October 17 at 8:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Navy" if Navy win the game. This market will resolv…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 2Q O/U 7.5 at 100% for "Navy vs. UTSA".

2Q O/U 7.5 100% Other 0%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $167K.

Methodology

Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Navy vs. UTSA plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.

Resolution & payout

Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.

Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How accurate are political prediction markets?: Historically more accurate than polls. Polymarket's Brier score on US 2024 elections was ~0.11 — better than 538 (~0.14) and every mainstream poll. Markets aggregate information with real skin in the game.
What resolution source is used for elections?: Polymarket defines the source per contract — usually Associated Press (AP Race Call), Reuters or the official electoral commission. The source is stated in contract details before the market opens.
Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?: Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?: Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?: Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.

David ParkSports Data Analystand

Oliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

Trade Navy vs. UTSA on Election Predictions UK

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Navy vs. UTSA

Platform comparison

Outcome probabilities

Market context

Live Data & Statistics

Methodology

Resolution & payout

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Trade Navy vs. UTSA on Election Predictions UK

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