Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| North Carolina 1H O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| North Carolina 1H O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| North Carolina 1H O/U 15.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 100% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 100% |
| O/U 37.5 | 89% |
| O/U 39.5 | 86% |
| O/U 35.5 | 81% |
| Spread -0.5 | 78% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 76% |
| North Carolina O/U 20.5 | 76% |
| North Carolina vs. Duke | 73% |
| North Carolina O/U 23.5 | 72% |
| Spread -1.5 | 68% |
| O/U 41.5 | 68% |
| O/U 43.5 | 67% |
| Spread -2.5 | 66% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 64% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 60% |
| Duke O/U 23.5 | 60% |
| Spread -3.5 | 59% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 59% |
| O/U 45.5 | 58% |
| Spread -4.5 | 56% |
| Spread -0.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 56% |
| Spread -5.5 | 55% |
| O/U 47.5 | 53% |
| Spread -6.5 | 51% |
| Duke Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 51% |
| North Carolina Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 51% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Duke O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Duke O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Duke O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Duke O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Duke 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Duke 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Duke 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Duke 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Duke 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Duke 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| North Carolina vs. Duke: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| North Carolina vs. Duke: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| North Carolina vs. Duke: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Duke 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Duke 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Duke Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Duke Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Duke Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Duke Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina vs. Duke: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina vs. Duke: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina vs. Duke: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Duke O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Duke O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| North Carolina 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Duke Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 49% |
| O/U 49.5 | 47% |
| Spread -8.5 | 43% |
| Spread -7.5 | 42% |
| O/U 51.5 | 39% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 36% |
| O/U 55.5 | 34% |
| Spread -10.5 | 31% |
| O/U 53.5 | 30% |
| O/U 59.5 | 30% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 30% |
| O/U 65.5 | 27% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 27% |
| O/U 67.5 | 26% |
| O/U 71.5 | 25% |
| O/U 73.5 | 25% |
| O/U 75.5 | 25% |
| Spread -1.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| O/U 57.5 | 23% |
| Spread -13.5 | 22% |
| Spread -2.5 | 22% |
| Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| Spread -14.5 | 18% |
| O/U 61.5 | 18% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 18% |
| Spread -16.5 | 16% |
| Spread -20.5 | 14% |
| O/U 63.5 | 14% |
| Spread -4.5 | 13% |
| Spread -5.5 | 13% |
| Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| Spread -6.5 | 11% |
| Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 7% |
| Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| O/U 69.5 | 6% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 4% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 4% |
| Spread -16.5 | 3% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
Market context
North Carolina vs. Duke — current market-implied probability: 100%. In the upcoming college football game between North Carolina and Duke, scheduled for October 17 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "North Carolina" if North Carolina win the game. This market w…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $202K.
Methodology
This page tracks North Carolina vs. Duke across four political prediction venues. Live odds come from the Polymarket order book (the deepest political prediction-market book). Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative, Betfair the established UK sports-exchange with politics markets, Manifold the open play-money variant. For users geo-blocked from Polymarket directly, brokers like Election Predictions UK provide a 0%-fee route into the same order book.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Are political prediction markets legal in my country?
- It varies. They sit in legal gray areas in most jurisdictions. Polymarket is geo-blocked from US/UK/EU; some broker frontends have a different geo footprint. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose, and only if you understand the legal status in your jurisdiction.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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