Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Election Predictions UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
73% | 27% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
73% | 27% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spread -0.5 | 73% |
| Spread -1.5 | 72% |
| O/U 35.5 | 70% |
| Spread -2.5 | 69% |
| Spread -3.5 | 63% |
| O/U 37.5 | 63% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| Spread -4.5 | 61% |
| Spread -5.5 | 59% |
| O/U 39.5 | 57% |
| Spread -6.5 | 56% |
| Wyoming O/U 23.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| O/U 41.5 | 52% |
| Wyoming 1H O/U 12.5 | 52% |
| Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| Wyoming O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| Northern Illinois O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| Wyoming O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| O/U 71.5 | 50% |
| O/U 73.5 | 50% |
| O/U 75.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Northern Illinois vs. Wyoming: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Northern Illinois vs. Wyoming: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois vs. Wyoming: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois vs. Wyoming: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Wyoming Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois vs. Wyoming: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Northern Illinois vs. Wyoming: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 48% |
| Spread -7.5 | 47% |
| O/U 43.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 47% |
| Spread -8.5 | 46% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 44% |
| Spread -10.5 | 41% |
| O/U 45.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 37% |
| Spread -13.5 | 35% |
| Northern Illinois O/U 20.5 | 35% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 35% |
| O/U 47.5 | 34% |
| Spread -14.5 | 33% |
| O/U 49.5 | 32% |
| 1H Moneyline | 31% |
| Northern Illinois vs. Wyoming | 28% |
| Spread -16.5 | 28% |
| Spread -0.5 | 27% |
| Spread -17.5 | 26% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 26% |
| Northern Illinois O/U 23.5 | 26% |
| Spread -1.5 | 25% |
| Spread -2.5 | 23% |
| O/U 51.5 | 22% |
| Spread -20.5 | 21% |
| O/U 53.5 | 20% |
| Spread -3.5 | 19% |
| O/U 55.5 | 18% |
| Spread -5.5 | 17% |
| Spread -4.5 | 17% |
| O/U 57.5 | 16% |
| Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| O/U 59.5 | 13% |
| Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| O/U 61.5 | 10% |
| Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| O/U 63.5 | 7% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| O/U 65.5 | 5% |
| O/U 67.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| O/U 69.5 | 4% |
Market context
The Northern Illinois vs. Wyoming prediction market currently prices this outcome at 73% YES. In the upcoming college football game between Northern Illinois and Wyoming, scheduled for October 17 at 3:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Northern Illinois" if Northern Illinois win the game. T…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $154K.
Methodology
Political prediction markets differ structurally from sports betting: thinner liquidity, longer settlement windows, higher sensitivity to single news events. This page shows the live Polymarket quote for Northern Illinois vs. Wyoming plus platform attributes for the three reference venues, so you can see at a glance where the deepest market for this question sits.
Resolution & payout
Political markets typically settle on official candidate or agency confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, the two-hour window opens, then the smart contract pays USDC.
Kalshi settles USD via CFTC clearinghouse, with clearly defined resolution sources (e.g. AP race calls for elections). Betfair settles after the official outcome is registered with the league or agency. Manifold is play-money.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Can prediction markets influence election outcomes?
- Markets reflect expectations rather than create them. Studies show public-facing markets can anchor expectations, but don't influence the underlying outcome. Political markets are information, not advocacy.
- Which platform has the deepest political liquidity?
- Polymarket — by far. US 2024 presidential volume was ~$3.5B vs Kalshi (~$200M) and Betfair (~$120M). Where Polymarket is geo-blocked, brokers like Election Predictions UK route into the same order book at 0% fees.
- How fast do political markets react to news?
- High-liquidity markets move within seconds to minutes. A Trump tweet on the economy can shift the "Trump 2024" market 2-5 points before mainstream media has written anything.
- Why do Polymarket and Kalshi differ on elections?
- Kalshi must follow CFTC compliance — strict definitions, clear resolution sources, US citizens only with KYC. Polymarket operates globally without CFTC oversight — deeper liquidity, but also higher regulatory risk.
- Are UK election prediction markets available from the UK?
- Yes. Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer UKGC-regulated UK election markets (seat counts, party share, constituency results). Polymarket also lists UK election contracts with deeper global liquidity. Betfair winnings are typically tax-free for UK individuals; Polymarket profits are subject to HMRC CGT.
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